MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fdac867dc0e06992ca126e7e073fd1ec709b2b07d19f3bdf4f0ddeba4e4ff42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Brewersof Milwaukee Brewers, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,871
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,493
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,871 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 21,443$13,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,294.87 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 14,422$5,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,941.64 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 71c | 11,799$8,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,352.32 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Milwaukee Brewers | 20c | 9,161$1,845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,316.83 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 5,505$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,304.93 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 4,316$2,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,632.93 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cincinnati Reds | 71c | 3,514$2,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,506.68 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 3,500$1,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,122.5 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 3,433$1,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,149.52 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…49debacked Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 2,439$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,438.97 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 1,121$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.28 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac65…cfe6backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 918.12$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 137 | 59.1%81 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 910$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 600$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 560$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 471$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.6 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 297.5$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.48 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Cincinnati Reds | 71c | 297$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.87 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9678…594bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 208.34$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.12 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 133.95$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.37 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 131.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.43 | 273 | 45.4%124 W · 149 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 120$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.6 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 115$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.3 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Cincinnati Reds | 22c | 106.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Milwaukee Brewers | 20c | 92.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.38 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 81.48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.52 | 445 | 53.5%238 W · 207 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 79.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 25c | 77.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 76.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.94 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 62.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 59.44$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.96 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 50.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x880b…90a8backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 48.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Cincinnati Reds | 73c | 47.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…d18fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 453 | 48.6%220 W · 233 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0243…b5a5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 48cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ab…faadbacked Cincinnati Reds | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2176…bc30backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 24.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e08…d327backed Cincinnati Reds | 72c | 20.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Milwaukee Brewers | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Milwaukee Brewers | 58c | 19.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee BrewersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.