Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Liverpool (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x462c1a48de68349360f8ae673de8d58ef0756d85f16137761d8fde465e8cc0c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Manchester Unitedof Liverpool, Manchester United
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,784
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,354
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,784 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Manchester United | 64c | 11,146$7,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,034.33 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad4…3c1abacked Liverpool | 35c | 7,503$2,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,593.94 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Manchester United | 65c | 5,000$3,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,750 | 506 | 44.3%224 W · 282 L | -14.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Liverpool | 37c | 3,031$1,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,121.15 | 459 | 36.2%166 W · 293 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9d…dc00backed Liverpool | 38c | 3,000$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…c9a1backed Liverpool | 41c | 2,447$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Liverpool | 37c | 1,948$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.58 | 370 | 36.2%134 W · 236 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x805e…e345backed Manchester United | 63c | 1,600$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdde…37abbacked Liverpool | 37c | 1,600$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.98 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Manchester United | 59c | 1,543$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a0…6b5abacked Manchester United | 62c | 1,071$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb758…dd73backed Liverpool | 38c | 887.75$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.95 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Manchester United | 59c | 720.34$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.34 | 492 | 54.9%270 W · 222 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Liverpool | 35c | 550$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.5 | 300 | 50.7%152 W · 148 L | -16.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33d2…d976backed Manchester United | 60c | 330$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Manchester United | 60c | 257.55$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.59 | 515 | 42.5%219 W · 296 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Liverpool | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked Manchester United | 63c | 222.22$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.22 | 177 | 48%85 W · 92 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd480…799ebacked Liverpool | 39c | 160$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.8 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ad…45ccbacked Manchester United | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 109 | 62.4%68 W · 41 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c25…2971backed Manchester United | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae4d…fc45backed Manchester United | 63c | 150$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Liverpool | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 246 | 30.5%75 W · 171 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Liverpool | 39c | 130$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 191 | 28.8%55 W · 136 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86d8…b853backed Manchester United | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe3…0bb4backed Liverpool | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Liverpool | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…c716backed Liverpool | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed Liverpool | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd611…63fcbacked Liverpool | 37c | 99.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Liverpool | 33c | 89.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 143 | 42.7%61 W · 82 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Liverpool | 13c | 85.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 203 | 7.4%15 W · 188 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed Manchester United | 62c | 80.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfd…ca1bbacked Manchester United | 67c | 74.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -5.3wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Manchester United | 63c | 59.05$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…2f76backed Liverpool | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Liverpool | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Liverpool | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x524f…319bbacked Liverpool | 29c | 47.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x495f…06b0backed Manchester United | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Manchester United | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…db2ebacked Manchester United | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa228…ec0ebacked Manchester United | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec5…9fe0backed Manchester United | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 65cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Manchester United | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 428 | 62.4%267 W · 161 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…afefbacked Liverpool | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc310…0966backed Manchester United | 66c | 29.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +58%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8009…ca1bbacked Manchester United | 67c | 15.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +4.0wins | +0.36per pick | 46cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Liverpool (-1.5)this page
- Liverpool vs. Manchester United: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.