Premier League · resolved market
Liverpool vs. Manchester United: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9ceb28f861d3856dcf0fdfd097fd9e7b715a35bf815b01d0c1aea6d7bf6ee27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $104,363
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $106,007
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,363 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Over | 42c | 65,409$27,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,471.87 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 58c | 65,235$37,831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,404.53 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 7,154$4,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,860.99 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 43c | 5,999$2,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,579.46 | 506 | 44.3%224 W · 282 L | -14.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefbd…8086backed Under | 65c | 3,732$2,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,313.02 | 175 | 44%77 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Over | 45c | 3,510$1,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,579.5 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f60…fdc8backed Over | 44c | 2,666$1,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,173.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1405…f0dcbacked Under | 56c | 2,666$1,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,173.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfffd…a1e5backed Over | 32c | 2,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fb…19c0backed Under | 63c | 1,999$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5fd…36d1backed Over | 25c | 1,650$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad4…3c1abacked Over | 43c | 1,225$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.94 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7af…9796backed Under | 56c | 1,220$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c8d…f3acbacked Over | 44c | 1,220$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Over | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 459 | 36.2%166 W · 293 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked Under | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 153 | 44.4%68 W · 85 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec73…303fbacked Under | 56c | 750.44$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.12 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a7…d3abbacked Under | 57c | 750$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x363c…9b0ebacked Over | 45c | 700$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 27c | 648.84$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.82 | 515 | 42.5%219 W · 296 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 42c | 480.49$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.16 | 492 | 54.9%270 W · 222 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Over | 45c | 450$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.5 | 300 | 50.7%152 W · 148 L | -16.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…b6e8backed Under | 56c | 450$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e90…be2bbacked Under | 72c | 423.56$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…dd26backed Over | 44c | 413.64$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc04…f726backed Over | 66c | 400$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49ad…b1bbbacked Under | 57c | 395.35$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.96 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…8026backed Over | 47c | 373.85$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 127 | 53.5%68 W · 59 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked Over | 46c | 361.33$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 185 | 62.2%115 W · 70 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe206…b9f3backed Under | 57c | 349.12$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf45…c508backed Under | 55c | 334.37$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.01 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Over | 45c | 330$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0283…e7d3backed Under | 68c | 305.66$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed Under | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77ad…ba8abacked Under | 57c | 293.71$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.51 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…db98backed Over | 33c | 242.42$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Under | 67c | 241.67$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.75 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12e8…1f6ebacked Under | 58c | 229.31$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed Over | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f1…2d5fbacked Under | 57c | 184.21$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.21 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e2…9710backed Over | 56c | 150$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b55…2eaebacked Under | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Over | 8c | 137$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 203 | 7.4%15 W · 188 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d16…e0c3backed Under | 57c | 126.32$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.32 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 55c | 125.47$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.46 | 218 | 39.4%86 W · 132 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Under | 54c | 111$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.06 | 293 | 43.7%128 W · 165 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd561…9423backed Under | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa740…ee18backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Over | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 197 | 43.7%86 W · 111 L | +32.4wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +142.5%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb54f…1738backed Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…8a5ebacked Over | 45c | 94.6$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd332…7d80backed Under | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Under | 58c | 74.14$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1352…4da4backed Under | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0864…df33backed Over | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0276…1763backed Under | 68c | 66.18$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ea…a857backed Over | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7082backed Under | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 142 | 52.8%75 W · 67 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 53c | 59.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 370 | 36.2%134 W · 236 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc3…f826backed Over | 35c | 57.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba6b…62b4backed Under | 57c | 54.39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Over | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40c6…d364backed Under | 48c | 43.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4135…8a57backed Under | 57c | 42.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a0…3762backed Under | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -7.9wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc0…d42fbacked Under | 51c | 38.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6551…9afcbacked Under | 53c | 35.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86f0…be32backed Under | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…c24ebacked Under | 58c | 34.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2820…2c63backed Under | 59c | 33.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6417…3c5bbacked Under | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce03…5608backed Under | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Under | 54c | 21.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…8ff6backed Under | 60c | 16.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab1f…458bbacked Under | 68c | 15.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Liverpool vs. Manchester United: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Liverpool (-1.5)Manchester United won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.