MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x463e0ab30df964f460314e5c097c8e7e45d65fc63f2d3f3202ddf4f502b819d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Tampa Bay Rays, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,914
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,958
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,914 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Kansas City Royals | 21c | 4,840$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 79c | 4,392$3,486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$906.59 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Tampa Bay Rays | 43c | 1,895$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.87 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Kansas City Royals | 57c | 1,860$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.19 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Kansas City Royals | 47c | 1,073$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.36 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 57c | 751.1$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.38 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 744.51$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.71 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Kansas City Royals | 56c | 470.45$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.45 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a0…c52bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 44c | 451.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.88 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee2…e88fbacked Kansas City Royals | 57c | 438.6$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47f4…936bbacked Kansas City Royals | 57c | 433.33$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Kansas City Royals | 57c | 380$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.6 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Tampa Bay Rays | 43c | 300$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 43c | 300$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…0482backed Tampa Bay Rays | 60c | 287.64$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.73 | 522 | 28%146 W · 376 L | -57.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Kansas City Royals | 33c | 223$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.74 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Tampa Bay Rays | 43c | 199.61$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.78 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 80c | 144.48$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Tampa Bay Rays | 68c | 108$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Kansas City Royals | 51c | 104.1$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.09 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 55c | 92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.56 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 43c | 91$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.87 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Tampa Bay Rays | 43c | 91$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.87 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 54c | 76$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -12.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Kansas City Royals | 38c | 71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 43c | 70$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Kansas City Royals | 57c | 58.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Kansas City Royals | 55c | 50.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Kansas City Royals | 45c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Kansas City Royals | 38c | 36.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Kansas City Royals | 43c | 24.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City RoyalsTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City RoyalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.