MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f4541a4c857afdb01480086e1c2e921409e850831c79fc3236b6ced4cec18bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,068
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,197
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,068 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 57c | 10,000$5,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,679.82 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 45c | 9,866$4,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,422.96 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 57c | 2,403$1,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,027.33 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…5ee4backed Over | 46c | 2,230$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025.83 | 285 | 53.3%152 W · 133 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…212ebacked Under | 54c | 2,028$1,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$932.87 | 206 | 48.1%99 W · 107 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 48c | 1,475$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.6 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 52c | 1,378$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.59 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 51c | 1,111$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.39 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 48c | 1,023$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.06 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 49c | 1,023$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.93 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Under | 50c | 1,001$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.32 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Over | 50c | 700$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 45c | 579$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.29 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 576.77$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.78 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 57c | 512.06$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.96 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 52c | 502.88$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.38 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 48c | 443.9$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.84 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134d…b07bbacked Under | 54c | 400$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 45c | 366.35$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.27 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 52c | 324.99$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 48c | 306.7$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.4 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 48c | 268.21$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.74 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…000fbacked Over | 51c | 205.88$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Over | 47c | 194.36$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.35 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…0482backed Over | 54c | 168.51$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.16 | 522 | 28%146 W · 376 L | -57.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x540e…263dbacked Under | 35c | 166.21$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.58 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 54c | 158.7$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 50c | 145.38$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.69 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Under | 54c | 129.92$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.92 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked Over | 50c | 124$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 247 | 49%121 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 47c | 120$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 515 | 45.2%233 W · 282 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 45c | 103.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.47 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Over | 51c | 102.56$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.31 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Over | 46c | 102$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 54c | 93.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51e…e386backed Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12a5…1c38backed Over | 47c | 74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa23c…ae92backed Over | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 53c | 62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Over | 48c | 54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 176 | 45.5%80 W · 96 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 47c | 50.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 48c | 44.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 50c | 44.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 50c | 43.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 50c | 39.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x954e…927fbacked Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9007…cf89backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa25a…04b7backed Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 50c | 34.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Over | 38c | 33.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Under | 77c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 49c | 30.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…c217backed Under | 53c | 28.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Under | 54c | 25.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…359dbacked Over | 47c | 24.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Under | 58c | 20.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076e…73fabacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5this page
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City RoyalsTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City RoyalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.