Us Politics · resolved market
Will Lisa McClain be announced as the next Republican House Conference Chair?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x464154fdbd7e25fcef6d7e66f55fd304a45ee9e351fcffd5341e8623ee7fe93c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $111,083
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $123,486
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,083 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc613…662bbacked No | 0c | 21,899$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 0c | 12,614$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked No | 44c | 4,779$2,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,086.77 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -69%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…dee1backed Yes | 64c | 2,372$1,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865.11 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaac…3e9dbacked No | 67c | 2,000$1,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,340 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b4…3791backed Yes | 33c | 2,000$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,340 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 68c | 2,000$1,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,357.5 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d24…ed0bbacked No | 79c | 1,510$1,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,192.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92c4…cbe5backed Yes | 21c | 1,510$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,192.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f56…5711backed Yes | 21c | 1,510$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,192.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 20cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe831…a1e9backed No | 79c | 1,510$1,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,192.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa527…b702backed No | 78c | 1,500$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f4…ec16backed No | 79c | 1,500$1,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,185 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b0…fe32backed No | 79c | 1,500$1,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,185 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f4…f2fbbacked No | 59c | 1,500$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…5986backed No | 67c | 1,500$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c8…6c29backed Yes | 41c | 1,500$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77a9…b20ebacked Yes | 21c | 1,500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,185 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.73per pick | 28cpaid | +285.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1de6…aed3backed Yes | 33c | 1,500$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,005 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd02d…ac41backed Yes | 22c | 1,500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,170 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x444e…3fe3backed Yes | 21c | 1,500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,185 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…bba9backed No | 6c | 534$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…8ee7backed No | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 5c | 299.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 294$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.26 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41de…954bbacked Yes | 78c | 283.59$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.87 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6e…5727backed Yes | 32c | 250$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57f6…1a52backed Yes | 33c | 201.48$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x341c…8eaebacked Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 18c | 185.59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 51c | 135$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.45 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Yes | 78c | 129$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x856f…e1d7backed Yes | 50c | 121$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 67c | 104$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x996b…1e9cbacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3e…830cbacked Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 48c | 90$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 50c | 86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9af2…2a84backed Yes | 79c | 82.91$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 45c | 59.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7bdc…90c8backed No | 72c | 55.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08d4…0d82backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…12e6backed No | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Yes | 78c | 38.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…eb03backed Yes | 55c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe464…fc9bbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lisa McClain be announced as the next Republican House Conference Chair?this page
- Will Anna Paulina Luna be announced as the next Republican House Conference Chair?No won
- Will Blake Moore be announced as the next Republican House Conference Chair?No won
- Will Erin Houchin be announced as the next Republican House Conference Chair?No won
- Will Kat Cammack be announced as the next Republican House Conference Chair?No won
- Will someone else be announced as the next Republican House Conference Chair?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.