Us Politics · resolved market
Will Kat Cammack be announced as the next Republican House Conference Chair?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9116c8277f46bdef8b39097dac1bf6ff8dc28337cd2b0b32b28974eea8addf6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,547
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,703
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,547 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaaac…3e9dbacked No | 74c | 2,000$1,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b4…3791backed Yes | 26c | 2,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcac6…6745backed Yes | 26c | 1,700$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec27…c9c6backed No | 74c | 1,700$1,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…69aebacked Yes | 21c | 1,510$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1d…5e7cbacked No | 79c | 1,510$1,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce0…61c9backed No | 79c | 1,500$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7784…b6ccbacked Yes | 26c | 1,500$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa527…b702backed No | 79c | 1,500$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8298…92b2backed Yes | 21c | 1,500$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x412b…f117backed Yes | 25c | 1,500$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b17…1f86backed No | 79c | 1,500$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…7934backed No | 74c | 1,500$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…d698backed Yes | 26c | 1,500$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…af87backed Yes | 26c | 1,500$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…8e55backed Yes | 21c | 1,500$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aef…0100backed Yes | 21c | 1,500$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0e…bd07backed Yes | 26c | 1,500$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x332f…d5f7backed No | 79c | 1,500$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…2feebacked No | 74c | 1,500$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…5986backed No | 74c | 1,500$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…d9d0backed No | 74c | 1,500$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecc1…602fbacked Yes | 21c | 1,500$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3970…ede1backed Yes | 21c | 1,500$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…894bbacked No | 74c | 1,500$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a48…ee2dbacked Yes | 21c | 1,500$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbd…664cbacked Yes | 26c | 1,500$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de6…aed3backed Yes | 26c | 1,500$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd02d…ac41backed Yes | 21c | 1,500$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d5…2fe6backed No | 75c | 1,500$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c2…a248backed No | 79c | 1,500$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1227…2a82backed No | 74c | 1,500$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…fc22backed No | 79c | 1,500$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd4…9095backed No | 79c | 1,500$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 38c | 1,255$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.8 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae61…4e32backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 75c | 600$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6e…5727backed Yes | 37c | 498.77$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.54 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 13c | 290$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49cb…8c3abacked Yes | 26c | 246.89$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.78 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 77c | 146$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7bdc…90c8backed No | 77c | 125$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 34c | 119.88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 71c | 99.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…bba9backed Yes | 34c | 65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 23c | 54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…12e6backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…eb03backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 74c | 15.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 98 | 29.6%29 W · 69 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kat Cammack be announced as the next Republican House Conference Chair?this page
- Will Anna Paulina Luna be announced as the next Republican House Conference Chair?No won
- Will Blake Moore be announced as the next Republican House Conference Chair?No won
- Will Erin Houchin be announced as the next Republican House Conference Chair?No won
- Will Lisa McClain be announced as the next Republican House Conference Chair?Yes won
- Will someone else be announced as the next Republican House Conference Chair?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.