Music · resolved market
Will "American Girls - Harry Styles" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x465e3302dfbc3d8ed00d381dfa36496d7b67c218d2fbc6a42ce861dbb6bdb4c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,088
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,088 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d0a…8c6cbacked No | 4c | 16,737$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.32per pick | 2cpaid | +2,356.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…0998backed No | 1c | 14,067$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 3cpaid | +897.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…4da4backed No | 6c | 8,725$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…b3bbbacked No | 1c | 4,946$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.45 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 5c | 3,372$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.87 | 53 | 3.8%2 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9f…069fbacked No | 2c | 2,861$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 5c | 1,501$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…2b04backed No | 13c | 800$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 2c | 759.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f7…8c35backed No | 2c | 749.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1590…000dbacked No | 3c | 527.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 5c | 482.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 11c | 309.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 163 | 34.4%56 W · 107 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe7…03e0backed No | 5c | 214.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 13c | 111.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 105 | 17.1%18 W · 87 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 13c | 85.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "American Girls - Harry Styles" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?this page
- Will "BAILE INoLVIDABLE - Bad Bunny" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?No won
- Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?No won
- Will "Man I Need - Olivia Dean" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?No won
- Will "Risk It All - Bruno Mars" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?No won
- Will "Stateside + Zara Larsson - PinkPantheress, Zara Larsson" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.