Music · resolved market
Will "Stateside + Zara Larsson - PinkPantheress, Zara Larsson" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x498da3954409912ceb02584d981fbc6d07e3187acf8e2b7757981e34c2c93edb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,500 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8de5…2b04backed Yes | 9c | 29,564$2,663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,662.84 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 9c | 678.98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.56 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +5.6wins | +0.35per pick | 21cpaid | +237.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 627$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 53 | 11.3%6 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 9c | 533.83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0650…6875backed Yes | 26c | 391.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 373.42$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.76 | 105 | 17.1%18 W · 87 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 6c | 351.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 69 | 5.8%4 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +148.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4001…5010backed Yes | 14c | 291.75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4695…9d51backed No | 79c | 271.87$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 8c | 245.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +5.0wins | +0.22per pick | 22cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 244.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ee…7553backed Yes | 24c | 231.16$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 18c | 228.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 163 | 34.4%56 W · 107 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 147.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 81 | 28.4%23 W · 58 L | -10.7wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -50%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 14c | 126.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 19c | 118.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…af18backed Yes | 22c | 107.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 18c | 101.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…9836backed Yes | 13c | 99.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 98.57$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 14c | 98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 74c | 83.33$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…82a0backed Yes | 22c | 82.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf865…e861backed No | 78c | 62.82$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f74…6e19backed Yes | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Yes | 19c | 53.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc31a…94f7backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…3ecebacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d50…a4c1backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…14eebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…6017backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…728abacked No | 72c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdac9…1ad9backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 75c | 14.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Stateside + Zara Larsson - PinkPantheress, Zara Larsson" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?this page
- Will "American Girls - Harry Styles" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?Yes won
- Will "BAILE INoLVIDABLE - Bad Bunny" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?No won
- Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?No won
- Will "Man I Need - Olivia Dean" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?No won
- Will "Risk It All - Bruno Mars" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.