Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4680e398a9c485f4617debce039508702e84ee9c948757fadfd685dd5d23fc2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,381
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,712
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,381 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed Yes | 0c | 31,848$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf387…5414backed Yes | 13c | 328.87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.61 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 21c | 264.05$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.18 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 9c | 255.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 23c | 253.92$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.01 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 188.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 18c | 168.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 25c | 164.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 28c | 149.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 8c | 147.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 27c | 136.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 74c | 134.34$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed Yes | 20c | 97.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 21c | 95.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 13c | 92.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 79c | 90.06$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 79c | 84.06$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cb…a5a8backed Yes | 25c | 78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 77.78$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 77c | 76.77$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 77c | 72.25$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 20c | 71.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…c377backed Yes | 26c | 65.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 23c | 61.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 72c | 55.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 69c | 55.24$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe906…5a44backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 46cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…cbaebacked Yes | 24c | 49.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 76c | 48.55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 78c | 44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 24c | 42.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 77c | 39.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…620cbacked No | 79c | 37.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -6.8wins | -0.12per pick | 73cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xecd5…ebdcbacked No | 80c | 30.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 64 | 81.3%52 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 79c | 29.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 76c | 25.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2aa…3e28backed No | 78c | 25.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 75c | 24.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 79c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 77c | 23.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 77c | 23.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 79c | 23.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x901f…64f0backed No | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 131 | 33.6%44 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed No | 79c | 21.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 79c | 21.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 21.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…4edcbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8862…bbf5backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 78c | 19.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 79c | 19.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dba…5b01backed No | 80c | 16.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.27 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 76c | 16.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed No | 79c | 15.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 125 | 64.8%81 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca30…7eb2backed No | 79c | 15.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed No | 80c | 15.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.02 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…9b20backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…c6c8backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 80c | 14.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.93 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…97f4backed No | 80c | 13.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c1…be67backed No | 78c | 13.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 34 | 88.2%30 W · 4 L | +7.2wins | +0.21per pick | 67cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 69°F or below on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 88°F or higher on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.