Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x612d7cfe423d949106e51bc02ad5982f5e9de6861978c2addb292a58d9c118bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,801
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,962
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,801 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 23c | 1,110$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.68 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 68c | 852.01$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.47 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 27c | 689.05$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.53 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ca…04f5backed No | 2c | 637.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf13e…5841backed No | 4c | 500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 484.37$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed Yes | 39c | 435.9$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.56 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 22c | 399.5$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.53 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 11c | 309$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.85 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 4c | 279.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 37c | 278.34$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.54 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4789…b286backed Yes | 25c | 277.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.83 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 24c | 272.14$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 67c | 235.89$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.39 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 228.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.03 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 18c | 214$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.27 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 79c | 170.59$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5c…e8f2backed Yes | 24c | 165.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.4 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 51c | 160$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.94 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 18c | 152.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.02 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23b9…cd97backed Yes | 10c | 148.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.05 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +116.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 23c | 130$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 36c | 129.05$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.15 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed No | 49c | 128$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.12 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 10c | 115.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.06 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 11c | 115$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa837…512fbacked Yes | 22c | 95.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.14 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 42c | 94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.76 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 50c | 90.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d5…f8fdbacked Yes | 24c | 88.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.98 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6826…230ebacked Yes | 21c | 84.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.63 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 80c | 79.74$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.75 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 22c | 77.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.68 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 74.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.43 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 33c | 73.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b66…db0abacked No | 42c | 72.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 71c | 70.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64da…2292backed Yes | 35c | 70.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.37 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 51c | 70.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.59 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 50c | 67.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe906…5a44backed No | 72c | 64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 46cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 73c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 54c | 59.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 25c | 57.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 65c | 55.01$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 55c | 53.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 65c | 45.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 78c | 44.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 42c | 44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 77c | 42.37$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…93abbacked No | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…b4dabacked No | 75c | 37.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed Yes | 63c | 36.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 48c | 33.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed Yes | 79c | 30.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 152 | 75.7%115 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 67c | 29.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 37c | 28.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 45c | 28.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 74c | 26.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 78c | 25.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dda…23bbbacked No | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…c3debacked No | 58c | 22.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -18.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 67c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cb…a5a8backed No | 78c | 21.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 78c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 76c | 17.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 76c | 16.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x901f…64f0backed No | 80c | 15.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 131 | 33.6%44 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 15.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…0b0cbacked No | 77c | 15.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -3.2wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x71c6…3eb8backed No | 75c | 15.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 69°F or below on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 88°F or higher on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.