Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4687804f5a558f08b866ac4c75a62e60ac5ce8d9734de4c133bdd647ea946fcf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,801
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,577
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,801 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc330…2b7bbacked Yes | 32c | 225.96$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.08 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 74c | 160.26$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.91 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 44c | 146.15$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.55 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 139.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.35 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb344…31eabacked No | 77c | 125.66$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 27c | 107.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc78d…e9f0backed Yes | 27c | 104.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…22b8backed Yes | 25c | 103.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 135 | 27.4%37 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa589…9ec9backed Yes | 33c | 85.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 76c | 80$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 75c | 71.51$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 23c | 60.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 59.26$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 59$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed No | 62c | 56.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dec…001ebacked Yes | 53c | 56.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 76c | 54.33$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed Yes | 41c | 48.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 74c | 39.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 31c | 39.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 31c | 37.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 60c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 43c | 35.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 79c | 26.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 64c | 20.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x839e…8a61backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 63c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C on July 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 42°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 43°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 44°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.