Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x254ad0ae3dabac75e6d913898925f9d3a533545d69c65629e4fa2585318b834b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,638
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,142
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,638 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 41c | 585.99$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.96 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 61c | 473.44$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.89 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 25c | 295.8$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.11 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 140.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.85 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed No | 42c | 127.11$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc330…2b7bbacked Yes | 30c | 125.47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.03 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 34c | 103.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 43c | 96$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.72 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 41c | 94.85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.98 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 54c | 88.04$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 71c | 83.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.75 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 61c | 80$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 38c | 76$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.12 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 23c | 66.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.99 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 65.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 62c | 64.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 30c | 63.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.85 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 61.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 60.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…27fbbacked Yes | 26c | 59.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.33 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 58.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.64 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 62c | 50.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 33c | 48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 70c | 46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 58c | 42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 39c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 77c | 39.46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 40c | 36.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 43c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 55c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948f…0b98backed Yes | 73c | 29.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 119 | 83.2%99 W · 20 L | +21.5wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 38c | 28.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 73c | 27.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 26.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 67c | 24.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 67c | 24.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 72c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 61c | 23.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 60c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 66c | 19.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 70c | 16.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bc…c1b8backed No | 67c | 15.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 42°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 43°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 44°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.