Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4689c8616b1b834d1edf23253474e0fbcf63fd4340144bbb93ace91db2fcce2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,763
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,532
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,763 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 267.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.52 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 18c | 223.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.97 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 60c | 211$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.74 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 11c | 200.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 16c | 198.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.79 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 42c | 188.54$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.37 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 11c | 183.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.61 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x186c…1d32backed Yes | 70c | 180.75$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.78 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 8c | 174.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.88 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 10c | 161.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.36 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a87…911fbacked Yes | 18c | 118.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.79 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdc…e076backed Yes | 68c | 117.63$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 32c | 106.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…53adbacked Yes | 23c | 97.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.17 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 73c | 96.02$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 55c | 95.24$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.79 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 65c | 93.59$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 71c | 86.19$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.12 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 64c | 83.61$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.91 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 52c | 74.08$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 64c | 72.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 17c | 67.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 52c | 63.86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked Yes | 26c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…23c8backed No | 78c | 59.08$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 27c | 55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 28c | 51.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe010…5147backed No | 54c | 47.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -17.1wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 33c | 39.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 79c | 34.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 76c | 33.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 34c | 29.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 41c | 24.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 67c | 20.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 75c | 20.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 74c | 20.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…c3a6backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 72c | 19.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 80c | 19.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…d0e4backed Yes | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.