TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-15.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Michigan State Spartansof Michigan State Spartans, North Dakota State Bison
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,458

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,458 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa080…234fbacked North Dakota State Bison46c19,478$8,960 inLost-$8,959.878148.1%39 W · 42 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Michigan State Spartans54c15,541$8,392 inWon+$7,148.8246246.5%215 W · 247 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Michigan State Spartans54c3,767$2,034 inWon+$1,732.825043.2%108 W · 142 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Michigan State Spartans48c2,294$1,101 inWon+$1,193.325145.8%115 W · 136 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked North Dakota State Bison54c1,964$1,060 inLost-$1,060.4734343.4%149 W · 194 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked North Dakota State Bison50c444.58$222 inLost-$221.6312,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda75…bbf9backed Michigan State Spartans53c399$211 inWon+$187.5323754.9%130 W · 107 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b7a…bc22backed North Dakota State Bison47c316.37$149 inLost-$148.6914325.9%37 W · 106 L-8.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-28.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0643…d46bbacked Michigan State Spartans54c275.36$149 inWon+$126.679348.4%45 W · 48 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-16.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x913b…0852backed Michigan State Spartans46c92.6$43 inWon+$5052843.6%230 W · 298 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa59…75ecbacked North Dakota State Bison47c66.32$31 inLost-$31.1714346.9%67 W · 76 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Michigan State Spartans53c65.74$35 inWon+$30.958652.9%310 W · 276 L+23.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x198c…6a94backed North Dakota State Bison47c59.06$28 inLost-$27.7618846.8%88 W · 100 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Michigan State Spartans49c51.99$25 inWon+$26.645,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked North Dakota State Bison46c42.54$20 inLost-$19.574,55250.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L-36.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ce8…2f9ebacked North Dakota State Bison50c29.06$15 inLost-$14.6330652%159 W · 147 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36aa…a683backed Michigan State Spartans54c23.86$13 inWon+$10.9817446.6%81 W · 93 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa431…bd20backed Michigan State Spartans54c18.96$10 inWon+$8.722100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.