TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

North Dakota State Bison vs. Michigan State Spartans

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Michigan State Spartansof North Dakota State Bison, Michigan State Spartans
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$955,603

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $955,603 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcb43…3c74backed North Dakota State Bison0c155,306$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.0428539.6%113 W · 172 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked North Dakota State Bison0c119,637$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.7313936.7%51 W · 88 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16bd…e288backed North Dakota State Bison0c60,638$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.461225%3 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-40%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked North Dakota State Bison1c53,840$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724.57140%0 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16b1…968abacked North Dakota State Bison8c49,871$3,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,989.7955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick40cpaid+20.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5c3…9792backed North Dakota State Bison1c36,070$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.9727055.6%150 W · 120 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed North Dakota State Bison5c34,903$1,697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,697.2614930.2%45 W · 104 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked North Dakota State Bison8c31,080$2,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,481.31,51147.8%722 W · 789 L-35.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked North Dakota State Bison8c15,197$1,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,215.7830152.8%159 W · 142 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb64f…0d2abacked North Dakota State Bison7c14,088$1,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,006.183138.7%12 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-26.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed North Dakota State Bison2c12,430$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.5425145.8%115 W · 136 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7804…7025backed North Dakota State Bison1c11,997$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.98757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick36cpaid-5.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x743a…ddcdbacked North Dakota State Bison0c11,200$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356142.6%26 W · 35 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+49.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked North Dakota State Bison8c9,974$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$797.942425%6 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-20%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed North Dakota State Bison2c7,462$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.873,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed North Dakota State Bison8c7,372$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.734040%16 W · 24 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked North Dakota State Bison2c6,057$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.1431837.7%120 W · 198 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-26.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe548…a51abacked North Dakota State Bison10c4,984$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.4350%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked North Dakota State Bison2c4,978$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.5310429.8%31 W · 73 L-8.3wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-38.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2f8e…67a8backed North Dakota State Bison1c3,940$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.591811.1%2 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+38.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed North Dakota State Bison8c3,818$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.452040%8 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x098e…6fa2backed North Dakota State Bison3c3,199$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.521010%1 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-83.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6ae…afe9backed North Dakota State Bison8c3,117$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.369711.3%11 W · 86 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-41.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x447f…f362backed North Dakota State Bison0c3,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick19cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc93c…3c93backed North Dakota State Bison1c3,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181872.2%13 W · 5 L+5.0wins+0.28per pick44cpaid+46.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xc4a9…4d64backed North Dakota State Bison9c2,996$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.697231.9%23 W · 49 L-7.6wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-29.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x86c8…c867backed North Dakota State Bison4c2,996$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.675459.3%32 W · 22 L+7.9wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+59.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb000…bbe6backed North Dakota State Bison8c2,494$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.483215.6%5 W · 27 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-42.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8c9…74f1backed North Dakota State Bison1c2,400$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick7cpaid-28.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4124…8af2backed North Dakota State Bison8c2,194$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.552810.7%3 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-65.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x92eb…986abacked North Dakota State Bison7c2,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1401353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.22per pick32cpaid+42%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeee1…8d64backed North Dakota State Bison1c2,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1140%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc089…25b4backed North Dakota State Bison1c2,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3698…3fc8backed North Dakota State Bison1c1,986$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+57.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked North Dakota State Bison8c1,666$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.861,91049.6%947 W · 963 L+30.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x913b…0852backed North Dakota State Bison3c1,658$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4352843.6%230 W · 298 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb298…ef07backed North Dakota State Bison8c1,608$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.62520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-50.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x13d6…926ebacked North Dakota State Bison8c1,496$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.691723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-39.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed North Dakota State Bison7c1,319$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.382846.1%382 W · 446 L+15.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c8c…47c0backed North Dakota State Bison8c1,296$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.671010%1 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick6cpaid+158.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x123e…eed4backed North Dakota State Bison2c1,143$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a96…c691backed North Dakota State Bison8c1,017$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.39728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick17cpaid-16%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f8d…6790backed North Dakota State Bison7c1,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704535.6%16 W · 29 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ab3…d6e9backed North Dakota State Bison8c997.42$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.79333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-48.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x358d…6af1backed North Dakota State Bison10c911.43$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d8b…7677backed North Dakota State Bison6c800$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44110%0 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5387…c91ebacked North Dakota State Bison8c797.94$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.844030%12 W · 28 L-4.2wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-45.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcd9c…7133backed North Dakota State Bison8c624.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.956225.8%16 W · 46 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-26.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf6f1…b386backed North Dakota State Bison8c623.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.874628.3%13 W · 33 L-7.6wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x11bf…770dbacked North Dakota State Bison8c623.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.875024%12 W · 38 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-42.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bb0…ca79backed North Dakota State Bison8c548.58$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.892119%4 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-61.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x22be…e36ebacked North Dakota State Bison7c499.74$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.986036.7%22 W · 38 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked North Dakota State Bison3c464.44$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.791,54041.3%636 W · 904 L+4.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dec…60c2backed North Dakota State Bison10c413.92$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3914245.8%65 W · 77 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed North Dakota State Bison6c400$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246437.5%24 W · 40 L-5.4wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-20.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed North Dakota State Bison8c398.97$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9216721%35 W · 132 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-39.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa84d…74a8backed North Dakota State Bison8c398.97$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.928444%37 W · 47 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked North Dakota State Bison8c398.97$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9238837.6%146 W · 242 L+14.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa178…e4bdbacked North Dakota State Bison8c392.49$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4156.7%1 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.15per pick22cpaid-79.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe2cc…893cbacked North Dakota State Bison4c354.68$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.193729.7%11 W · 26 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-25.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4282…3455backed North Dakota State Bison8c331.78$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.141010%1 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick6cpaid+138.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70ae…e370backed North Dakota State Bison8c311.7$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.941838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ba…e6b7backed North Dakota State Bison8c311.7$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.944729.8%14 W · 33 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5449…992bbacked North Dakota State Bison7c307.8$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.71911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd95c…11c2backed North Dakota State Bison3c303.95$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6450%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1ca…cc07backed North Dakota State Bison8c289.73$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.18250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5194…1dcabacked North Dakota State Bison8c249.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.95742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd033…668cbacked North Dakota State Bison8c249.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.953218.8%6 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-47.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac10…4ddabacked North Dakota State Bison8c249.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.951526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-41.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13c9…5e53backed North Dakota State Bison8c249.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9511136%40 W · 71 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-16.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee57…52a4backed North Dakota State Bison8c249.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.952520%5 W · 20 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-43.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfddc…bfc4backed North Dakota State Bison5c241.77$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked North Dakota State Bison5c239.82$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.992,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe20c…bf55backed North Dakota State Bison8c199.48$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.961723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-48.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf829…5ee1backed North Dakota State Bison8c199.48$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.961833.3%6 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-16.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5dc…0f05backed North Dakota State Bison8c184.27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-28.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked North Dakota State Bison8c181.53$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5221646.8%101 W · 115 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cec…7c61backed North Dakota State Bison7c172.34$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.698446.4%39 W · 45 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-15.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa049…649bbacked North Dakota State Bison8c163.58$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked North Dakota State Bison8c149.61$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.97573.5%2 W · 55 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-89.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x37cd…82d7backed North Dakota State Bison8c149.61$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.973534.3%12 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-30.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6340…02babacked North Dakota State Bison8c147.84$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.83812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick29cpaid-70.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b18…0390backed North Dakota State Bison8c142.13$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.371540%6 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc77a…daf8backed North Dakota State Bison8c129.67$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.372913.8%4 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-49.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.