TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6340…02ba

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
27
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: NBA, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 55 out of 100; worst Ncaa Basketball at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+60.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Nuggets vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$84.52
Magic vs. Cavaliersbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.4
Spread: Spurs (-9.5)backed Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+103.1%+$12.08
Warriors vs. Wizards: O/U 232.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+97.8%+$11.46
Warriors vs. Wizards: O/U 231.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+85.4%+$26.86
Jazz vs. Kingsbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.98
Trail Blazers vs. 76ersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.23
Mavericks vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.31
Timberwolves vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+66.9%+$7.62
Nuggets vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+754.5%+$198.16
All 10 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick29cpaid-70.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UCLA Bruins vs. Connecticut Huskiesbacked UCLA Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.54
St. John's Red Storm vs. Kansas Jayhawksbacked Kansas Jayhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.61
Texas A&M Aggies vs. Houston Cougarsbacked Texas A&M Aggies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.4
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Georgia Bulldogsbacked Saint Louis Billikens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$18
North Dakota State Bison vs. Michigan State Spartansbacked North Dakota State Bison · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.83
SMU Mustangs vs. Miami (OH) RedHawksbacked SMU Mustangs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.79
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Michigan Wolverinesbacked Michigan Wolverines · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.03
New Mexico Lobos vs. San Diego State Aztecsbacked New Mexico Lobos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.65
All 8 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+137.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blackhawks vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+118.4%+$34.78
Avalanche vs. Jetsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$24.4
All 2 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 24, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+29.7%+$7.65
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.87
All 2 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-03-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$14.26
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$10.38
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. USAbacked USA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+60.5%+$36.56
All 1 picks, newest first.
Australian A League Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Australian A League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Australian A League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Adelaide United FC win on 2026-02-20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$19.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-03-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.63
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.