TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-23.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Michigan State Spartansof Michigan State Spartans, North Dakota State Bison
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$30,260

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,260 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 7 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5d58…9a15backed North Dakota State Bison45c28,992$13,046 inLost-$13,046.372445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Michigan State Spartans55c17,865$9,826 inWon+$8,039.1621636.1%78 W · 138 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Michigan State Spartans55c4,957$2,726 inWon+$2,230.5134343.4%149 W · 194 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Michigan State Spartans55c4,957$2,726 inWon+$2,230.5190645.4%411 W · 495 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Michigan State Spartans52c1,476$773 inWon+$703.3146246.5%215 W · 247 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x86b0…a9e6backed North Dakota State Bison53c458.23$243 inLost-$242.86728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-46%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x176b…9412backed North Dakota State Bison46c48.29$22 inLost-$22.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.