Champions League · resolved market
Spread: Shamrock Rovers FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46b1869c43665064e426b9215f14defe4845f0f775107ba450c1f152ccad3ace
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ararat-Armenia FAof Shamrock Rovers FC, Ararat-Armenia FA
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,728
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,728 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Ararat-Armenia FA | 26c | 902.74$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.76 | 749 | 35.4%265 W · 484 L | -30.8wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Shamrock Rovers FC | 33c | 771.94$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.74 | 910 | 32.6%297 W · 613 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Ararat-Armenia FA | 67c | 442$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.86 | 968 | 37.4%362 W · 606 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf81a…719abacked Shamrock Rovers FC | 39c | 359.25$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.35 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Ararat-Armenia FA | 63c | 295.13$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.79 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4d…1a1fbacked Shamrock Rovers FC | 37c | 164.86$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Shamrock Rovers FC | 64c | 164.45$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.77 | 1,071 | 34.8%373 W · 698 L | -15.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Ararat-Armenia FA | 62c | 85$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 676 | 49.4%334 W · 342 L | -15.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Ararat-Armenia FA | 70c | 52.09$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Shamrock Rovers FC | 30c | 52.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 195 | 35.9%70 W · 125 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Ararat-Armenia FA | 62c | 52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 522 | 46.7%244 W · 278 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed Ararat-Armenia FA | 62c | 39.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Shamrock Rovers FC | 42c | 39.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 401 | 43.4%174 W · 227 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Ararat-Armenia FA | 67c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 297 | 46.5%138 W · 159 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Shamrock Rovers FC (-1.5)this page
- Shamrock Rovers FC vs. Ararat-Armenia FA: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Shamrock Rovers FC vs. Ararat-Armenia FA: Ararat-Armenia FA O/U 0.5Over won
- Shamrock Rovers FC vs. Ararat-Armenia FA: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Shamrock Rovers FC vs. Ararat-Armenia FA: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Shamrock Rovers FC vs. Ararat-Armenia FA: O/U 0.5Over won
- Shamrock Rovers FC vs. Ararat-Armenia FA: O/U 1.5Over won
- Shamrock Rovers FC vs. Ararat-Armenia FA: O/U 2.5Over won
- Shamrock Rovers FC vs. Ararat-Armenia FA: O/U 3.5Under won
- Shamrock Rovers FC vs. Ararat-Armenia FA: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Shamrock Rovers FC (-2.5)Ararat-Armenia FA won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.