Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46bc5a2fc10e45f7f1d0b4cc31d6932113d66cc7da49cee464821a461bcc81f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,927
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,907
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,927 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 25c | 1,386$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.13 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…4d2bbacked No | 78c | 1,219$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.27 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 13c | 1,017$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.61 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5e…4033backed Yes | 24c | 995.34$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.73 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 2c | 750$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9699…b8fdbacked Yes | 10c | 567.18$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.96 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 432.14$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 16c | 372.8$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.44 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9577…3de1backed Yes | 14c | 336.26$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 18c | 314.05$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.52 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 8c | 311.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 7c | 266.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 7c | 260.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 18c | 233.31$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 207.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882f…5967backed Yes | 11c | 191.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 7c | 154.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 25c | 150.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 19c | 145.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 24c | 145.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 138.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 15c | 130.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe329…4adbbacked No | 79c | 126.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0005…d5fdbacked Yes | 24c | 113.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 11c | 107.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…443bbacked Yes | 37c | 103.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.01 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…047dbacked No | 70c | 99.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 19c | 97.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 30c | 91.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 27c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 73c | 89.89$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 74c | 88.48$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed No | 73c | 87.57$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 17c | 87.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 85.26$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 21c | 81.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 15c | 78.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 76.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed Yes | 30c | 68.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…74fdbacked Yes | 24c | 65.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 55.68$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 76c | 51.96$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…85f7backed Yes | 24c | 50.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 71c | 46.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 77c | 39.87$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff6…8ac5backed No | 72c | 20.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc7…b45abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 80c | 12.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.52 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C or higher on April 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.