Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C or higher on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee4d2650126f3f5bb927d552e52be43271d40436bef284771bf56922c47d55f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,546
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,141
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,546 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b5e…4033backed Yes | 1c | 1,884$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 38c | 1,810$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.84 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes | 10c | 691.35$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.13 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 10c | 617.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.05 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 13c | 557.78$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.19 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e2…5d01backed No | 60c | 420.2$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 21c | 385.1$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.26 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…7518backed Yes | 43c | 384.57$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.7 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed No | 62c | 375.3$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.36 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 10c | 338.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 9c | 312.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes | 65c | 289.54$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.65 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 53c | 246.96$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.71 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 52c | 235.85$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.37 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 57c | 231.85$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.96 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3141…f16abacked Yes | 16c | 229.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 61c | 223.58$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.03 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 220.34$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.88 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 54c | 203.39$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 20c | 199.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc907…020fbacked Yes | 26c | 193.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.83 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 10c | 191.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 78c | 167.29$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.97 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…75c8backed Yes | 15c | 166.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 86 | 23.3%20 W · 66 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 36c | 140.67$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…4536backed Yes | 21c | 134.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 118.23$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.23 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes | 32c | 117.84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 21c | 117.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed No | 62c | 111.47$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf648…05c7backed No | 47c | 104.08$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.16 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 43cpaid | -69%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…0a17backed Yes | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 49c | 99.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 70c | 98.92$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.84 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…f673backed Yes | 25c | 98.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59d1…cdc7backed Yes | 20c | 94.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 93.73$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.85 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d41…8233backed Yes | 51c | 93.64$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed Yes | 53c | 92.76$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f68…c408backed No | 63c | 89.75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9577…3de1backed No | 55c | 86.9$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 64c | 86.43$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.47 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 34c | 86.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Yes | 38c | 85.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 30c | 84.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46c7…71a0backed Yes | 15c | 82.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 80.41$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x014b…243bbacked Yes | 28c | 79.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 57c | 77.55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x981f…a3d6backed Yes | 49c | 77.54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 25c | 76.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 25c | 73.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 47c | 67.82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 43c | 67.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 34c | 67.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c3…53a2backed Yes | 44c | 64.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 48c | 62.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40ea…6523backed Yes | 62c | 59.22$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…9c08backed Yes | 50c | 58.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f59…9e40backed Yes | 24c | 57.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 76c | 56.06$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 44c | 51.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3794…715cbacked Yes | 45c | 50.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd979…4a18backed Yes | 56c | 48.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 42c | 46.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 61c | 46.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 43c | 43.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8693…ebd0backed Yes | 33c | 43.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3023…465cbacked Yes | 38c | 41.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc7…b45abacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 54c | 38.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 47c | 38.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 47c | 38.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafb5…cc10backed No | 50c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 37.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 74c | 36.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 46c | 36.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 44c | 36.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 37c | 36.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9954…b725backed No | 58c | 32.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 73c | 32.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 50c | 32.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 43c | 30.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked Yes | 57c | 29.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 57c | 28.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…23c7backed Yes | 43c | 28.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7970…3450backed No | 68c | 28.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 43c | 28.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 71c | 26.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 68c | 26.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 48c | 25.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 76c | 25.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc35f…65cebacked Yes | 49c | 24.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…5386backed No | 59c | 24.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc06d…6732backed No | 58c | 24.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C or higher on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.