Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60e427496125ffca39a09124a5beb6a8b0a0e02a4df9e88b0692397cbc065bfe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,009
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,009 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5730…891ebacked No | 1c | 1,492$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5e…4033backed Yes | 80c | 783.06$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.12 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes | 71c | 414.97$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.36 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 53c | 380.52$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.97 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 369.06$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.96 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 17c | 284$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.52 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked No | 59c | 276.78$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.89 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 28c | 230.79$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.62 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 203.28$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.99 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed No | 5c | 199.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…919ebacked Yes | 57c | 183.43$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.11 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 73c | 180.75$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 65c | 164.8$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.63 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…443bbacked Yes | 44c | 163.27$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.53 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 17c | 157.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x882f…5967backed Yes | 31c | 155.87$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.3 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 21c | 154.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed Yes | 31c | 153.7$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.05 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7368…6e6dbacked No | 64c | 149.75$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.02 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…87bdbacked Yes | 69c | 140.7$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 65c | 139.8$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.33 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc907…020fbacked Yes | 67c | 132.7$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.55 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 41c | 130.22$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.63 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1419…cd8bbacked Yes | 50c | 115.04$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.06 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d0abbacked No | 26c | 113.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes | 75c | 109.35$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 15c | 103.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…0a17backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb43…e61bbacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 37c | 98.59$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.48 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82fd…c9a8backed Yes | 79c | 97.89$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 17c | 95.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c3…53a2backed Yes | 39c | 87.2$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.41 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 37c | 79.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.87 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 35c | 76.35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.34 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 45c | 74.79$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.83 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 37c | 74.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.91 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 39c | 74.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.37 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 32c | 70.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 46c | 70.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc935…74cfbacked Yes | 54c | 69.46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 67.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 40c | 63.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9699…b8fdbacked Yes | 40c | 62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed Yes | 50c | 55.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.81 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 50c | 55.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed Yes | 47c | 52.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…c0cbbacked Yes | 36c | 52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3794…715cbacked Yes | 46c | 51.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…bf33backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 47c | 47.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3023…465cbacked Yes | 36c | 46.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed No | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +13.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 33c | 39.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4160…5d74backed No | 49c | 37.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 33c | 35.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9757…2dbfbacked Yes | 46c | 31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…7f30backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…23c7backed Yes | 40c | 28.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948f…1215backed Yes | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 56c | 24.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 63c | 20.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 20.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x476d…ceecbacked No | 77c | 19.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 186 | 15.6%29 W · 157 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4475…b483backed Yes | 55c | 19.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 61c | 17.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…e8a1backed No | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked Yes | 75c | 14.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C or higher on April 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.