Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs. SV Darmstadt 98 end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46ca29ddb84929e890c1e5bd29b9c1c67a490e17b7af9fa7a4194037ce43c028
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,407
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,407 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a92…6941backed No | 23c | 6,134$1,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,395.61 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +9.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Yes | 25c | 4,610$1,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,457.63 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 75c | 3,535$2,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,651.5 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 66c | 3,527$2,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,197.58 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Yes | 25c | 3,319$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,489.17 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 70c | 2,267$1,593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,593.27 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 46c | 1,621$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.49 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9037…0386backed No | 2c | 1,023$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 75c | 947.66$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.53 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 33c | 779.33$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.86 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 53c | 715.95$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.18 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 75c | 589.17$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.88 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 77c | 588.25$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.27 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x631c…7bfebacked Yes | 33c | 465.88$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.55 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 78c | 443.15$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.83 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6479…5e64backed Yes | 54c | 359.35$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.3 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…da14backed Yes | 25c | 332.88$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 53c | 238.32$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.97 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e36…6ce1backed No | 76c | 226.32$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16e3…22d5backed Yes | 34c | 210.33$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +47%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 27c | 200.24$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.47 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…7204backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc490…6507backed No | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.6 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…20a1backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 168 | 50%84 W · 84 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2f…c5d0backed No | 77c | 195.4$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -4.7wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x434d…fba4backed No | 75c | 191.94$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.96 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed No | 76c | 187$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.12 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5730…e57dbacked No | 75c | 183.91$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7baf…99a7backed No | 11c | 180.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 75c | 158.06$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.98 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aee…b3e3backed No | 75c | 148.97$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 68c | 148.43$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.46 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Yes | 25c | 140$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked No | 45c | 123.66$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.15 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed Yes | 25c | 116$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 22c | 114.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Yes | 26c | 103.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.85 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x201d…2e13backed No | 72c | 100.47$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked No | 74c | 79$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.46 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 23c | 78.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…8dddbacked No | 22c | 75.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed No | 44c | 73.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 25c | 67.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.54 | 147 | 34.7%51 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed No | 75c | 66.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed Yes | 25c | 64.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeed1…c6fbbacked No | 23c | 61.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…72eabacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a6…44edbacked Yes | 26c | 59.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.91 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed No | 75c | 53.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.13 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Yes | 25c | 52.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.31 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4796…79fcbacked Yes | 58c | 48.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed No | 75c | 47.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf7…9f80backed Yes | 79c | 43.32$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba49…e8acbacked Yes | 25c | 40.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1b…3b5bbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x639f…6b8dbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19fd…4533backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 27cpaid | +153.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46e8…1391backed No | 76c | 38.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed No | 75c | 37.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 58c | 35.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x289c…79bcbacked Yes | 70c | 29.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce0…56f9backed Yes | 44c | 29.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cd…2ddcbacked No | 44c | 27.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc15…3a2ebacked No | 44c | 24.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Yes | 80c | 24.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc62e…108dbacked Yes | 76c | 20.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 75c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs. SV Darmstadt 98 end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2026-03-13?No won
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-03-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.