Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46e5805e7759484157e7ef3e49c96e63fdd5b43798c78ade29f4c862d8c42876
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,754
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,615
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,754 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 8c | 547.43$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.15 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 9c | 312.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 32c | 295.35$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.1 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…65d5backed Yes | 6c | 289.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 12c | 284.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 278.96$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.68 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 236.98$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…2155backed No | 70c | 221.94$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.94 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…2420backed Yes | 28c | 218.44$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.94 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 184.5$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.43 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…0f16backed No | 79c | 179.99$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 30c | 159.68$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 12c | 150.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 71c | 124.87$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.81 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 67c | 117.17$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.67 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 26c | 110$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 12c | 109.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 36c | 109.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d2…ff97backed Yes | 20c | 101.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 22c | 90.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c000backed Yes | 34c | 88.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 32c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1575…ac63backed No | 64c | 78.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 28c | 70.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 28c | 70.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 16c | 63.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 62$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 74c | 61.87$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 18c | 60.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…4425backed No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e04…67f4backed No | 74c | 55.67$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 66 | 68.2%45 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 20c | 52.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 51.83$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 70c | 50.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 29c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…7889backed Yes | 32c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 42.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 71c | 38.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 27c | 38.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 70c | 34.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 68c | 32.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…7ef6backed No | 74c | 30.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 116 | 70.7%82 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 69c | 29.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 67c | 26.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 25.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…1751backed No | 73c | 24.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 70c | 21.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…64f4backed No | 77c | 19.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 70c | 19.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 68c | 16.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda8…7795backed No | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked No | 71c | 14.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 77c | 14.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x737d…d0febacked No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on May 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.