Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd30daf85889c779f51f30f554275290297e3d93a1c2a7e0315f3810d77d9121e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,253
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,674
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,253 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 66c | 524.13$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.83 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 333.49$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.78 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 46c | 290.26$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.71 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 23c | 215.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 41c | 204.13$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.47 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 43c | 188$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 31c | 136.35$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 136.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.18 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 41c | 122.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.13 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 41c | 102.19$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 47c | 95.38$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.8 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 52c | 91.89$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.02 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 46c | 75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7385…0c36backed No | 68c | 73.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 59c | 72.63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked No | 50c | 68.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 20c | 65.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 59c | 65.16$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked No | 55c | 62.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 49c | 61.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 55c | 58.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…eae5backed No | 19c | 58.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x237b…9f36backed No | 63c | 54.93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 52.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 53c | 51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 49.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 45c | 49.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 35c | 45.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 45c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 36c | 41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 62c | 39.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8786…6884backed No | 54c | 38.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 34c | 38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb5…de0cbacked Yes | 54c | 36.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.0wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 63c | 35.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 43c | 35.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 41c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 42c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa52d…a95abacked No | 45c | 33.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 54c | 32.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 57c | 31.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 62c | 31.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 50c | 30.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27c5…0d4cbacked No | 53c | 29.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 46c | 29.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 53c | 27.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 27.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 61c | 26.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 50c | 26.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 53c | 25.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3221…f1bebacked No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 46c | 24.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 51c | 24.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 64c | 24.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…2155backed No | 63c | 23.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 64c | 23.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked No | 60c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 20.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked No | 56c | 18.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 57c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 61c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on May 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.