CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: illwill vs fnatic - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x471884ff911f98ea2b93d4edea719c7041470661ce69d7908b8c6fa99810b94b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- fnaticof illwill, fnatic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,674
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,449
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,674 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa927…8d9fbacked fnatic | 53c | 3,162$1,678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,483.89 | 345 | 59.1%204 W · 141 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33d3…bf38backed illwill | 40c | 3,113$1,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,254.99 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56d6…4404backed fnatic | 58c | 510$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 640 | 58.1%372 W · 268 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d42…cde0backed illwill | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed illwill | 26c | 291$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.07 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed illwill | 41c | 190$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.9 | 1,146 | 43.5%499 W · 647 L | -17.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked illwill | 43c | 182.73$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.5 | 2,604 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L | +98.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked illwill | 48c | 128$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.04 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked illwill | 8c | 127.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23b4…48dabacked fnatic | 51c | 125$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.25 | 109 | 42.2%46 W · 63 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed fnatic | 51c | 103$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.04 | 807 | 40.3%325 W · 482 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe80c…f3e6backed illwill | 22c | 87.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 419 | 38.9%163 W · 256 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed fnatic | 51c | 78.83$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 809 | 42.3%342 W · 467 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed illwill | 49c | 68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 2,624 | 51.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed fnatic | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 2,362 | 46.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L | -53.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked fnatic | 58c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 1,848 | 41.7%770 W · 1,078 L | -69.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed fnatic | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 1,848 | 47.6%879 W · 969 L | -55.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed illwill | 49c | 24.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 500 | 56.6%283 W · 217 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs fnatic - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs fnatic (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series #2 Playoffsfnatic won
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs fnatic - Map 2 Winnerillwill won
- Map Handicap: FNC (-1.5) vs illwill (+1.5)illwill won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.