CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: illwill vs fnatic - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x743a830f940baf988e30b9065eb1973ad3e7dd8739351e1a10f61b643f7fdbfd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- illwillof illwill, fnatic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,481
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,565
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,481 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33d3…bf38backed illwill | 43c | 1,829$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,047.82 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked illwill | 49c | 1,153$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.14 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b59…0ba0backed illwill | 40c | 997.38$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.43 | 557 | 38.4%214 W · 343 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked fnatic | 51c | 990$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.9 | 558 | 43.5%243 W · 315 L | -16.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb888…b15bbacked illwill | 23c | 830$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.4 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed illwill | 51c | 612.35$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.05 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66ea…6791backed fnatic | 49c | 502.04$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 179 | 48%86 W · 93 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…6eacbacked fnatic | 50c | 378$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +22.4wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf49a…8981backed illwill | 33c | 346.22$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.12 | 191 | 42.4%81 W · 110 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed fnatic | 59c | 316$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.4 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed illwill | 51c | 267.39$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.75 | 2,624 | 51.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked illwill | 41c | 243.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.95 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed fnatic | 49c | 241.22$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.4 | 807 | 40.3%325 W · 482 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked fnatic | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 2,604 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L | +98.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed fnatic | 48c | 197.39$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.28 | 593 | 43.2%256 W · 337 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed fnatic | 42c | 196.5$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.77 | 1,547 | 33.9%524 W · 1,023 L | -73.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked fnatic | 77c | 191.23$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.1 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed fnatic | 37c | 179$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.39 | 2,626 | 30.9%812 W · 1,814 L | -105.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed illwill | 44c | 139.54$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.34 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de9…9499backed fnatic | 56c | 139.38$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked fnatic | 59c | 131$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.42 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed fnatic | 34c | 126.86$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked fnatic | 55c | 124$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.87 | 2,473 | 34.6%855 W · 1,618 L | -188.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed fnatic | 64c | 112$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.05 | 2,362 | 46.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L | -53.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcc…e8ccbacked illwill | 48c | 102.08$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.08 | 154 | 41.6%64 W · 90 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed fnatic | 49c | 97.75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 809 | 42.3%342 W · 467 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f8…71e0backed fnatic | 48c | 90.14$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 187 | 47.1%88 W · 99 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcffd…a39dbacked fnatic | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09fd…60f7backed illwill | 28c | 82.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.75 | 83 | 22.9%19 W · 64 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…a1aabacked fnatic | 61c | 81.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb441…f757backed fnatic | 51c | 73.31$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 187 | 54%101 W · 86 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked fnatic | 35c | 68.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 3,459 | 29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L | -279.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed fnatic | 28c | 68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked illwill | 52c | 66.02$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 746 | 53.5%399 W · 347 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe232…6ceabacked fnatic | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 68 | 11.8%8 W · 60 L | -6.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed fnatic | 61c | 59.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 644 | 39.8%256 W · 388 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b2…70f0backed fnatic | 59c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 428 | 31.3%134 W · 294 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed fnatic | 52c | 38.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked fnatic | 32c | 37.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 1,650 | 32.7%540 W · 1,110 L | -49.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c2…45b2backed fnatic | 67c | 34.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 401 | 41.6%167 W · 234 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed fnatic | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1,003 | 55.7%559 W · 444 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked fnatic | 59c | 26.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 597 | 3%18 W · 579 L | -221.0wins | -0.37per pick | 40cpaid | -90.7%equal weight | 11-0.36 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a3…09b8backed fnatic | 65c | 25.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed fnatic | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1,848 | 47.6%879 W · 969 L | -55.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed illwill | 51c | 24.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 500 | 56.6%283 W · 217 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb213…49e1backed fnatic | 57c | 19.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 66cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs fnatic - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs fnatic (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series #2 Playoffsfnatic won
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs fnatic - Map 1 Winnerfnatic won
- Map Handicap: FNC (-1.5) vs illwill (+1.5)illwill won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.