Tennis · resolved market
Nottingham 3: Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong vs Luca Castelnuovo
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x475da806c063b0235f5c7272f7d3e5e9a8542731522b86b73eeee121efa44a66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Luca Castelnuovoof Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong, Luca Castelnuovo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,677
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,365
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,677 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong | 15c | 2,402$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.89 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Luca Castelnuovo | 80c | 1,105$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.12 | 4,533 | 67.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L | +306.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2899…42a5backed Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong | 40c | 870.96$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong | 19c | 666.11$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.55 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Luca Castelnuovo | 60c | 640.38$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.09 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9694…b7adbacked Luca Castelnuovo | 62c | 614.88$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.88 | 2,058 | 59.5%1,225 W · 833 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong | 38c | 465$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.63 | 611 | 52.2%319 W · 292 L | -11.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong | 16c | 390.51$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.81 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Luca Castelnuovo | 62c | 327$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.69 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda70…37e3backed Luca Castelnuovo | 61c | 164.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.49 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4126…e68bbacked Luca Castelnuovo | 74c | 159$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 1,159 | 69%800 W · 359 L | +56.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…5bdfbacked Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong | 37c | 134.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 969 | 45.9%445 W · 524 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong | 26c | 125$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 327 | 26.9%88 W · 239 L | -43.6wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xccd8…f4debacked Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong | 39c | 101.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 1,475 | 35.2%519 W · 956 L | -14.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bb…4c8abacked Luca Castelnuovo | 62c | 80.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong | 39c | 78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 301 | 32.9%99 W · 202 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong | 37c | 73.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 389 | 31.4%122 W · 267 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Luca Castelnuovo | 63c | 73$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 557 | 48.8%272 W · 285 L | +23.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…a265backed Luca Castelnuovo | 68c | 66.04$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 2,281 | 52%1,187 W · 1,094 L | +82.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…0111backed Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong | 17c | 62.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 1,102 | 56.5%623 W · 479 L | +52.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Luca Castelnuovo | 62c | 58.72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…5f5abacked Luca Castelnuovo | 80c | 58.36$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 1,010 | 39.2%396 W · 614 L | -23.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong | 32c | 57.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong | 39c | 51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 2,485 | 35.9%893 W · 1,592 L | -28.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Luca Castelnuovo | 64c | 50.39$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 514 | 45.5%234 W · 280 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong | 42c | 49.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 829 | 58.1%482 W · 347 L | +17.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 601 | 41.1%247 W · 354 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong | 28c | 48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong | 36c | 44.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 743 | 46.3%344 W · 399 L | -28.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf9…8292backed Luca Castelnuovo | 65c | 42.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 588 | 57.7%339 W · 249 L | +20.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Luca Castelnuovo | 68c | 38.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 245 | 46.5%114 W · 131 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Luca Castelnuovo | 75c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 2,082 | 52.3%1,088 W · 994 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x378c…14b8backed Luca Castelnuovo | 65c | 30.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -8.1wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong | 34c | 30.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1298…97b6backed Luca Castelnuovo | 67c | 29.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa25a…04b7backed Luca Castelnuovo | 62c | 28.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 113 | 53.1%60 W · 53 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong | 38c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f8…71e0backed Luca Castelnuovo | 45c | 26.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…c7a6backed Luca Castelnuovo | 64c | 25.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 167 | 55.7%93 W · 74 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Luca Castelnuovo | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 1,175 | 52.9%622 W · 553 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong | 54c | 20.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 174 | 36.8%64 W · 110 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Luca Castelnuovo | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 1,725 | 52.2%901 W · 824 L | -8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nottingham 3: Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong vs Luca Castelnuovothis page
- Set Handicap: Castelnuovo (-1.5) vs Leong (+1.5)Castelnuovo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.