MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47c7b4bafa3c37f169beb15f25adc2bf61764fe56fcc44891431c0184dd697c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof New York Mets, Atlanta Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,576
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,268
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,576 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed New York Mets | 32c | 4,069$1,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,301.94 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Mets | 31c | 3,289$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.97 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Mets | 32c | 3,155$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.53 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Atlanta Braves | 68c | 2,784$1,893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.88 | 208 | 45.2%94 W · 114 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Atlanta Braves | 64c | 2,582$1,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.4 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Mets | 26c | 1,722$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.69 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Atlanta Braves | 68c | 1,543$1,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.76 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked New York Mets | 29c | 1,024$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.96 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Atlanta Braves | 68c | 983$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.56 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Atlanta Braves | 73c | 936$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.72 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked New York Mets | 34c | 832.15$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.68 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Atlanta Braves | 68c | 760.2$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.89 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Atlanta Braves | 69c | 700$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked New York Mets | 10c | 688$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.78 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d23…251cbacked Atlanta Braves | 67c | 306.03$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.33 | 117 | 51.3%60 W · 57 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Atlanta Braves | 68c | 271.41$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.85 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed New York Mets | 38c | 256.96$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.96 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Atlanta Braves | 66c | 197.75$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.32 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Atlanta Braves | 80c | 160.04$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.06 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Atlanta Braves | 68c | 154.29$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.37 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed New York Mets | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked New York Mets | 33c | 147.73$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed New York Mets | 27c | 135.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed New York Mets | 33c | 131.39$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.36 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…c70bbacked Atlanta Braves | 69c | 122.16$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.68 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed New York Mets | 33c | 108.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed New York Mets | 28c | 100.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Atlanta Braves | 69c | 99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…c7a2backed Atlanta Braves | 72c | 97.22$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed New York Mets | 26c | 80.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed New York Mets | 26c | 80.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Atlanta Braves | 68c | 77.14$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.68 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed New York Mets | 30c | 73.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed New York Mets | 33c | 72.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed New York Mets | 33c | 72.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed New York Mets | 30c | 50.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed New York Mets | 33c | 47.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb323…e253backed New York Mets | 32c | 43.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Atlanta Braves | 61c | 43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed New York Mets | 33c | 41.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Atlanta Braves | 69c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Atlanta Braves | 78c | 23.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Atlanta Braves | 76c | 19.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Atlanta Braves | 61c | 17.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Atlanta Braves | 80c | 14.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.98 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)New York Mets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.