Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47cf92e6df0778bb38e28c68b9f1a498e48e2b24575d8aaf7944752c10b63e58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,368
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,904
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,368 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff52…688ebacked Yes | 30c | 1,482$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035.28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 564.96$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.72 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 72c | 400$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 74c | 390.38$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.43 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 283.67$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.72 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 252$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.31 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 80c | 223.22$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.14 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 20c | 187.49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.99 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 32c | 183.69$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.75 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 21c | 174.34$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.73 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 9c | 160.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.88 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0050…cad1backed No | 64c | 160$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.25 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 36c | 150$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 73c | 147.32$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.17 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 16c | 116.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.38 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 36c | 96.9$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.02 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 16c | 85.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.29 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 79.22$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.76 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 77c | 76.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.66 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 21c | 75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 70c | 69$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 42c | 62.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 73c | 57.07$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.87 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…844dbacked No | 78c | 57.03$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 128 | 76.6%98 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 36c | 56.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.06 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 54.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.88 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed Yes | 26c | 54.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.45 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe67c…3de5backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 68c | 47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed No | 77c | 38.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 33c | 37.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 79c | 34.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 37c | 33.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked Yes | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 73c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 17.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad5e…56ffbacked No | 78c | 14.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.