Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81849481b17d4c1e983969045dbde21c9db0ac64322f8a65e311b2a03adca1ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,763
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,763 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 41c | 941$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.71 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 24c | 421.98$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.28 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 247$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 223.22$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.27 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 24c | 195.92$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.09 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 59c | 186$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.26 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 8c | 176.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 58c | 172.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.36 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed No | 58c | 159.6$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.86 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 19c | 156.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 25c | 140.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 135.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.82 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 21c | 130.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 125.57$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 54c | 116.85$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.63 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed No | 67c | 112.62$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.16 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed No | 59c | 104.17$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.67 | 97 | 69.1%67 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 23c | 103.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 56c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 14c | 94.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 21c | 91.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 89.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3b…171ebacked No | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 29c | 81.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeaea…1d63backed Yes | 21c | 80.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 35c | 76.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 23c | 68.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 67.51$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 60.08$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 22c | 59.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 27c | 59.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 54.97$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 20c | 50.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 35c | 50.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 75c | 50.07$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 77c | 49.11$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 63c | 46.43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 42c | 45.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 37.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x39be…aac9backed Yes | 42c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 42c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 67c | 32.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed No | 62c | 31.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 68c | 29.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 77c | 25.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 55c | 25.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 61c | 25.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 58c | 24.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 61c | 22.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…7e42backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 110 | 68.2%75 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…79b1backed No | 59c | 19.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e04…80babacked No | 58c | 19.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 75c | 18.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x598f…528bbacked No | 61c | 16.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 76c | 14.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on July 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.