MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47d6ec32b3fba5f743d5fd75db6640b6be0b79d4648a1ed19b23757a16f0ad3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Philliesof Philadelphia Phillies, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,922
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,030
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,922 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x674d…def3backed St. Louis Cardinals | 39c | 3,004$1,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,167.29 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…d82cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 2,919$1,839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080.11 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb652…2db4backed St. Louis Cardinals | 37c | 2,681$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.04 | 73 | 24.7%18 W · 55 L | -9.8wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 56c | 2,476$1,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,091.41 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 60c | 1,667$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.67 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 1,667$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.67 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…76fabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 47c | 1,572$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.85 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 62c | 1,199$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.59 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 37c | 990.78$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.63 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 61c | 617$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.98 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed St. Louis Cardinals | 21c | 570.42$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.61 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 61c | 513.84$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.4 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Philadelphia Phillies | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Philadelphia Phillies | 64c | 334.07$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.89 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed St. Louis Cardinals | 37c | 74.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Philadelphia Phillies | 62c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…017dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | -16.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Philadelphia Phillies | 62c | 40.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…1c52backed Philadelphia Phillies | 62c | 40.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 115 | 62.6%72 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4839…ec4cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed St. Louis Cardinals | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa33…8dbcbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 68c | 22.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.