Fifa International · resolved market
Will Moldova vs. Lithuania end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47e7315a4ac3c83c0dc9112a8067a61a742fc4f4141bada5898630e3bc191899
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,588
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,121
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,588 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Yes | 35c | 1,427$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 77c | 1,272$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.59 | 760 | 48.7%370 W · 390 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b18…cbe3backed No | 63c | 777.29$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.45 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 67c | 730.7$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.86 | 371 | 44.5%165 W · 206 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 22c | 615.64$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.44 | 98 | 29.6%29 W · 69 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 72c | 555.47$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.82 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 68c | 499.99$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 30c | 486.42$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.23 | 465 | 36.1%168 W · 297 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 68c | 478.48$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.66 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…401cbacked Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.32per pick | 41cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 32c | 390.21$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.48 | 1,262 | 47.5%600 W · 662 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 33c | 313$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.89 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 279 | 51.6%144 W · 135 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd40b…429abacked Yes | 34c | 286.79$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.51 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 38c | 234.11$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.06 | 293 | 43%126 W · 167 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked No | 74c | 207$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.42 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1edf…2392backed Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd45…f2aabacked Yes | 32c | 189.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.42 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 67c | 174.97$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.74 | 3,077 | 47%1,447 W · 1,630 L | -11.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a1…3529backed No | 61c | 158.95$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.99 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf25…636dbacked Yes | 39c | 154.44$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.23 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ae…33b8backed Yes | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 22c | 143.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda22…6d2abacked Yes | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Yes | 28c | 132$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 245 | 37.1%91 W · 154 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4f…ccbbbacked No | 68c | 130.88$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 67c | 124.29$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.02 | 3,213 | 47.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…2037backed No | 62c | 112.77$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…5401backed No | 62c | 112.74$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed No | 62c | 111.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.99 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +8.8wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 67c | 104.72$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 163 | 41.1%67 W · 96 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 159 | 45.3%72 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec9…02f6backed No | 69c | 89.93$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 31c | 87.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…31c3backed Yes | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 154 | 48.1%74 W · 80 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 30c | 72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 161 | 16.8%27 W · 134 L | -16.9wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 66c | 70.07$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 550 | 45.1%248 W · 302 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe89a…467ebacked No | 69c | 69$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 33c | 58.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 459 | 47.7%219 W · 240 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 19c | 56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 64c | 54.16$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 2,524 | 42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 32c | 54.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 450 | 39.6%178 W · 272 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d40…4e09backed Yes | 37c | 51.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed No | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 166 | 59.6%99 W · 67 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b36…b82ebacked No | 72c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…c57abacked No | 69c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 108 | 63.9%69 W · 39 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 908 | 40.9%371 W · 537 L | -64.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 34c | 38.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4988…d21cbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed No | 79c | 22.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 255 | 54.5%139 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed No | 79c | 22.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 246 | 53.3%131 W · 115 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 79c | 22.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 508 | 50%254 W · 254 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed No | 79c | 22.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 237 | 49.8%118 W · 119 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 68c | 16.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94c3…140cbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Moldova vs. Lithuania end in a draw?this page
- Will Lithuania win on 2026-03-26?Yes won
- Will Moldova win on 2026-03-26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.