NHL · resolved market
KHL: Sibir Novosibirsk vs. Metallurg Magnitogorsk
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48038e31f5bffe7b11999748484f10fe5a7ce2076f88b5f82f00ebadb25dbc2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Metallurg Magnitogorskof Sibir Novosibirsk, Metallurg Magnitogorsk
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,563
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,563 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 64c | 336.01$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.42 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 46c | 186.79$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.82 | 239 | 50.6%121 W · 118 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8651…6716backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 64c | 183.36$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.79 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 52c | 164.6$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.91 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 34c | 144.46$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…d960backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 48c | 109.6$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.08 | 366 | 62%227 W · 139 L | +39.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…aaa3backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 38c | 106.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 37c | 97.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 155 | 60%93 W · 62 L | +13.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 38c | 96.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.25 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e6…b209backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 46c | 92.6$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 36c | 83.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 204 | 47.1%96 W · 108 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 34c | 80.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 37c | 77.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 337 | 45.7%154 W · 183 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf2…85b7backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 67c | 75.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f3…0979backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 67c | 74.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 37c | 62.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 37c | 56.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 173 | 63%109 W · 64 L | +16.9wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 36c | 49.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 42c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 64c | 47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 550 | 48.2%265 W · 285 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb64c…393dbacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 58c | 43.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 34c | 43.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 119 | 33.6%40 W · 79 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0112…4fe9backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ac…1afdbacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 66c | 30.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 177 | 65.5%116 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff7…d3c9backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 64c | 22.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 62 | 67.7%42 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +10%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc916…5403backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 64c | 20.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 139 | 54%75 W · 64 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…c07bbacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 178 | 53.9%96 W · 82 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 62c | 17.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 451 | 49.4%223 W · 228 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07a6…5638backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 67c | 17.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 91 | 68.1%62 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e50…8c97backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 263 | 57.8%152 W · 111 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.