NFL · resolved market
Chargers vs. Jaguars: O/U 44.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x481bd7df26547f06450a574628b19f53b901c4b0250e0303062d062bf9fd5027
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,646
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,673
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,646 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 53c | 5,194$2,755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,439.16 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4d…6055backed Over | 47c | 4,268$2,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,005.92 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 54c | 704$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.88 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 46c | 580$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.1 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Under | 52c | 522.92$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee0…d808backed Over | 48c | 520.83$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 46c | 451.41$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.48 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Over | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 55c | 69$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chargers vs. Jaguars: O/U 44.5this page
- Chargers vs. JaguarsJaguars won
- Chargers vs. Jaguars: 1H MoneylineJaguars won
- Chargers vs. Jaguars: O/U 43.5Under won
- Chargers vs. Jaguars: O/U 45.5Under won
- Spread: Chargers (-1.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Chargers (-2.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Chargers (-3.5)Jaguars won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.