NFL · resolved market
Spread: Chargers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46c93a282ee25deb56c4bf6002a949e06d8b3cb7109190135573aa9246af6475
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jaguarsof Chargers, Jaguars
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $209,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $207,511
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $209,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Chargers | 58c | 131,040$76,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76,413.2 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Jaguars | 42c | 115,000$48,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67,000 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Jaguars | 45c | 38,824$17,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,427 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f7…c4e5backed Jaguars | 41c | 18,000$7,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,550 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Chargers | 55c | 10,000$5,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,500 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a2…d974backed Chargers | 56c | 9,821$5,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,500 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Chargers | 54c | 6,667$3,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,600.18 | 240 | 56.7%136 W · 104 L | +19.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Chargers | 54c | 6,592$3,592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,592.26 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Jaguars | 46c | 6,450$2,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,482.78 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Chargers | 56c | 5,000$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,800 | 307 | 43.6%134 W · 173 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Jaguars | 42c | 3,450$1,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,001 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffa…0788backed Chargers | 58c | 3,448$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Chargers | 53c | 2,553$1,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,352.94 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Jaguars | 43c | 2,361$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,340.23 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a45…dd1dbacked Chargers | 55c | 1,636$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.23per pick | 49cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…48f3backed Jaguars | 44c | 1,484$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831.09 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Chargers | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Jaguars | 42c | 999.92$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.95 | 195 | 43.6%85 W · 110 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Jaguars | 43c | 983$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.31 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Jaguars | 43c | 911.63$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.63 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bd17backed Chargers | 58c | 862.07$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Chargers | 56c | 800$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448 | 266 | 48.9%130 W · 136 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…9f3fbacked Jaguars | 43c | 697.67$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.67 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd9…9ef5backed Chargers | 58c | 431.03$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Jaguars | 43c | 359.06$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.89 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…cef3backed Chargers | 56c | 345.44$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.09 | 173 | 59%102 W · 71 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Chargers | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed Jaguars | 42c | 299.99$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Jaguars | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…d00fbacked Jaguars | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2203…e5a1backed Chargers | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe832…7abbbacked Chargers | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1306…edf8backed Chargers | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Jaguars | 46c | 172.47$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.8 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aad…18f4backed Chargers | 56c | 170.71$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.4 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Jaguars | 43c | 160$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed Jaguars | 43c | 159.95$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.17 | 145 | 50.3%73 W · 72 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Jaguars | 48c | 140$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Jaguars | 45c | 125.17$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.1 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Chargers | 57c | 118.75$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.36 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Jaguars | 44c | 62.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Jaguars | 42c | 49.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…f80abacked Jaguars | 44c | 47.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Jaguars | 42c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 184 | 27.7%51 W · 133 L | -18.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…bf65backed Chargers | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Jaguars | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Chargers | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee4…0908backed Chargers | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chargers (-1.5)this page
- Chargers vs. JaguarsJaguars won
- Chargers vs. Jaguars: 1H MoneylineJaguars won
- Chargers vs. Jaguars: O/U 43.5Under won
- Chargers vs. Jaguars: O/U 44.5Under won
- Chargers vs. Jaguars: O/U 45.5Under won
- Spread: Chargers (-2.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Chargers (-3.5)Jaguars won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.