NFL · resolved market
Spread: Chargers (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc25200b93b62a18856eb1b6f4258081ee91c4d70fc4a30c5a44a61b7aa9012d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jaguarsof Chargers, Jaguars
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,257
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,040
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,257 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Jaguars | 58c | 16,042$9,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,737.64 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Chargers | 42c | 12,500$5,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,249.99 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68df…4815backed Chargers | 42c | 8,000$3,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,360 | 181 | 56.9%103 W · 78 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Chargers | 44c | 4,829$2,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,139.2 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Jaguars | 59c | 4,085$2,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,666.35 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Chargers | 41c | 3,840$1,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,564.6 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Jaguars | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Jaguars | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Jaguars | 55c | 1,885$1,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$847.22 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Jaguars | 57c | 1,862$1,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.79 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Chargers | 43c | 1,609$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.52 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Jaguars | 55c | 1,292$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.22 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcea6…67adbacked Chargers | 46c | 1,088$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Chargers | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a8…a48ebacked Jaguars | 57c | 932$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.76 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a45…dd1dbacked Chargers | 43c | 930.23$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.23per pick | 49cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Jaguars | 54c | 893.46$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.99 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Jaguars | 54c | 682.39$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.9 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Chargers | 41c | 545.22$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.45 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Chargers | 46c | 518$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.75 | 314 | 50%157 W · 157 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d7…c17bbacked Jaguars | 57c | 450$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.5 | 117 | 59.8%70 W · 47 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5387…c91ebacked Jaguars | 55c | 400$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked Chargers | 43c | 371.23$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.63 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ef…9e7abacked Chargers | 43c | 355.36$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.36 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Jaguars | 58c | 345$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.9 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaabc…a190backed Jaguars | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Chargers | 43c | 326.26$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.29 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Chargers | 43c | 325$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.75 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Chargers | 45c | 302$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.9 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Jaguars | 56c | 278$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.32 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…d00fbacked Jaguars | 58c | 241.38$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.38 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Chargers | 44c | 228.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…1df2backed Jaguars | 57c | 228.07$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.07 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked Jaguars | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Jaguars | 55c | 185$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.85 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b79…3c8cbacked Chargers | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf35…b327backed Chargers | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Jaguars | 57c | 91.94$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.54 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Chargers | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Chargers | 46c | 61.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 169 | 40.8%69 W · 100 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c09…a69fbacked Jaguars | 58c | 60.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Jaguars | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Chargers | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 109 | 40.4%44 W · 65 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked Jaguars | 58c | 55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…f6a0backed Chargers | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d3…ada0backed Jaguars | 58c | 35.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Jaguars | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Chargers | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Chargers | 43c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…d9f6backed Jaguars | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Jaguars | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chargers (-3.5)this page
- Chargers vs. JaguarsJaguars won
- Chargers vs. Jaguars: 1H MoneylineJaguars won
- Chargers vs. Jaguars: O/U 43.5Under won
- Chargers vs. Jaguars: O/U 44.5Under won
- Chargers vs. Jaguars: O/U 45.5Under won
- Spread: Chargers (-1.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Chargers (-2.5)Jaguars won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.