NFL · resolved market
Chargers vs. Jaguars: O/U 43.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48626da2030f4c102f238125dff88f489ac28c70a4200c4cc25014b7e7a491bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,032
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,996
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,032 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 49c | 12,712$6,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,482.85 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 51c | 12,475$6,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,362.25 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 51c | 3,941$2,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,931.27 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde97…e43ebacked Over | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 50c | 1,238$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.81 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a45…dd1dbacked Over | 49c | 1,224$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.23per pick | 49cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 50c | 1,129$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.5 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Over | 48c | 499.75$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.88 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Under | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +11.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 50c | 274.4$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.2 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 48c | 272$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.56 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Under | 48c | 205.77$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…9cf9backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 51c | 190$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.9 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Over | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 52c | 108$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.84 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 174 | 59.2%103 W · 71 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fa…f3bebacked Over | 43c | 51.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Over | 28c | 38.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chargers vs. Jaguars: O/U 43.5this page
- Chargers vs. JaguarsJaguars won
- Chargers vs. Jaguars: 1H MoneylineJaguars won
- Chargers vs. Jaguars: O/U 44.5Under won
- Chargers vs. Jaguars: O/U 45.5Under won
- Spread: Chargers (-1.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Chargers (-2.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Chargers (-3.5)Jaguars won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.