NFL · resolved market
Spread: Chargers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbde53c7395cb077a5a27da96563890f84fe81c79bc4742403f008047f1d09e92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jaguarsof Chargers, Jaguars
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $149,693
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $149,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $149,693 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Jaguars | 48c | 113,010$54,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58,803.22 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…fa7bbacked Chargers | 52c | 75,257$39,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,133.81 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68df…4815backed Chargers | 52c | 28,836$14,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,994.58 | 181 | 56.9%103 W · 78 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Jaguars | 48c | 26,907$12,836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,071.11 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Chargers | 53c | 18,422$9,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,742.04 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Chargers | 52c | 9,026$4,694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,693.52 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Chargers | 52c | 7,500$3,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,900 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Jaguars | 47c | 2,161$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,152.6 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcc…4324backed Jaguars | 44c | 2,000$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,110 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x56c6…f706backed Chargers | 52c | 1,981$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030.35 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec0…f7aabacked Chargers | 56c | 1,003$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.39 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +29%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae5…b896backed Chargers | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Jaguars | 48c | 872.93$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.99 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a45…dd1dbacked Chargers | 52c | 769.23$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.23per pick | 49cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a45…1405backed Chargers | 54c | 555.56$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Jaguars | 45c | 469.1$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.19 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Jaguars | 48c | 417$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.84 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa097…fba7backed Chargers | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6d…6b4ebacked Chargers | 51c | 388.45$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.11 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Chargers | 55c | 270$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Jaguars | 46c | 266.57$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.76 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Jaguars | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…6dddbacked Chargers | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5384…9d80backed Chargers | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Chargers | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 163 | 44.8%73 W · 90 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58a0…2b5bbacked Chargers | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…d00fbacked Jaguars | 49c | 163.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.27 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Jaguars | 47c | 163$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.17 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Jaguars | 45c | 149.98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.49 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6941…efd5backed Chargers | 55c | 136.36$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Jaguars | 48c | 133.5$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.17 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1f…0b36backed Chargers | 56c | 125$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked Chargers | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad5c…ac13backed Chargers | 55c | 89$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x608d…796abacked Chargers | 52c | 86.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Jaguars | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 203 | 54.7%111 W · 92 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Chargers | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2325…3256backed Chargers | 52c | 34.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Chargers | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Jaguars | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Chargers | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -9.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chargers (-2.5)this page
- Chargers vs. JaguarsJaguars won
- Chargers vs. Jaguars: 1H MoneylineJaguars won
- Chargers vs. Jaguars: O/U 43.5Under won
- Chargers vs. Jaguars: O/U 44.5Under won
- Chargers vs. Jaguars: O/U 45.5Under won
- Spread: Chargers (-1.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Chargers (-3.5)Jaguars won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.