Europa Conference League · resolved market
PAOK vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4835bd7874e04da4be37b4baa23c26e9520842dcae4aff5b6061ab1d3bc8d134
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,294
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,294 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbeb…9c89backed Over | 30c | 3,318$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec4…12c6backed Over | 30c | 3,281$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…e8febacked Over | 30c | 3,281$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd2…3a16backed Over | 30c | 3,079$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf99f…748abacked Over | 30c | 3,055$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$916.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 46cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a1…f183backed Over | 30c | 3,052$916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…d4a4backed Under | 70c | 1,294$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3011…64a6backed Under | 70c | 1,294$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…676dbacked Under | 70c | 1,278$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…1263backed Under | 70c | 1,200$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a1…db34backed Under | 70c | 1,197$838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.1 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +75%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c65…1caabacked Under | 70c | 1,168$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa43f…1acebacked Under | 70c | 1,116$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5c…ecbbbacked Under | 70c | 1,098$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 67cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7118…0aa8backed Under | 70c | 1,098$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb547…dc81backed Under | 70c | 1,034$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +75%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…5f0abacked Under | 70c | 1,023$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e9…8476backed Under | 70c | 1,017$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 67 | 22.4%15 W · 52 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c40…f2babacked Under | 70c | 924$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5b…8affbacked Under | 70c | 894$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c9…2e61backed Under | 70c | 889$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a01…b169backed Under | 70c | 889$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff8f…50dcbacked Under | 70c | 832$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1886…f032backed Under | 70c | 821$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Under | 71c | 640$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.6 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 75c | 344.62$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.93 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 26c | 253.85$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Over | 32c | 243.84$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.03 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Over | 26c | 231$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.83 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 31c | 148.39$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 152 | 24.3%37 W · 115 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…cf38backed Under | 71c | 137$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.73 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a6…57c9backed Over | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 69 | 29%20 W · 49 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Over | 34c | 87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 80 | 62.5%50 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Over | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 71c | 72.52$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 920 | 50.9%468 W · 452 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 19c | 67.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 706 | 39.5%279 W · 427 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 32c | 56.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 65c | 40.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 212 | 43.9%93 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 74c | 38.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 180 | 49.4%89 W · 91 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05ec…f767backed Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- PAOK vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 3.5this page
- PAOK vs. Real Betis Balompié: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- PAOK vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 1.5Over won
- PAOK vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 2.5Under won
- PAOK vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Real Betis Balompié (-1.5)PAOK won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.