Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x484e4a94546ebae3cdf92d1777c1faafecd884eeea24220cb9606ddff41df288
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,917
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,894
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,917 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32d1…e5c8backed No | 6c | 499.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 78 | 9%7 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 76c | 301.77$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.36 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 268.52$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.28 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed Yes | 44c | 238.97$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.97 | 139 | 47.5%66 W · 73 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 20c | 205.86$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.89 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 22c | 199.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 3,939 | 23.2%913 W · 3,026 L | +125.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 31c | 188.39$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.68 | 342 | 22.2%76 W · 266 L | -19.6wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 35c | 177.69$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.14 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 20c | 133$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.57 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 48c | 116$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.68 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 30c | 111.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb530…3c03backed Yes | 26c | 75.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.18 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29a9…1706backed Yes | 30c | 73.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.77 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ed…aea6backed Yes | 66c | 71.01$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 76c | 70.37$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.25 | 571 | 58.1%332 W · 239 L | -28.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked Yes | 23c | 62.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.89 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 45c | 58.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 138 | 61.6%85 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 23c | 52.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.83 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 75c | 52.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 282 | 51.1%144 W · 138 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8220…2d1ebacked No | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 82 | 26.8%22 W · 60 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 26c | 48.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 74c | 40.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 47c | 38.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b91…0a35backed Yes | 51c | 38.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 34.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 41c | 32.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 185 | 42.2%78 W · 107 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 80c | 32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 886 | 60.7%538 W · 348 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 73c | 29.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 450 | 59.1%266 W · 184 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 227 | 58.1%132 W · 95 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd1…3257backed Yes | 53c | 22.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2edc…a207backed No | 49c | 22.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed No | 80c | 20.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba11…4cb9backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaeaf…266bbacked Yes | 53c | 19.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 63cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 71c | 17.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -19.9wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on August 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.