Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will FK Žalgiris Vilnius win on 2026-07-30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x485039df1cc98aae55d1cc73a9ba6964e7fe4fea608c9c8cc3405b0728f715bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,167
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,090
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,167 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4956…e2c7backed Yes | 52c | 10,000$5,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,838.94 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7609…6c4ebacked No | 49c | 5,228$2,537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,536.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 59c | 2,477$1,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c1…2988backed Yes | 51c | 2,113$1,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035.24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked No | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 49c | 1,432$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.71 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed No | 49c | 1,053$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.53 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 48c | 837.52$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.5 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 52c | 693.31$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.93 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 5c | 650.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 48c | 625$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 48c | 625$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 49c | 611.98$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.53 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked No | 48c | 520$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.6 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d11…c449backed No | 47c | 510.47$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.92 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked No | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 51 | 74.5%38 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 48c | 464.65$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.2 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 29c | 360.75$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.02 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 55c | 319.78$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.26 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 51c | 276.95$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.44 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 46c | 233.18$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.2 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed No | 49c | 204$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 180 | 56.7%102 W · 78 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 48c | 194.66$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.82 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 48c | 192$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.16 | 370 | 43.8%162 W · 208 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Yes | 52c | 187.79$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.14 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed No | 48c | 180$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.29 | 381 | 44.1%168 W · 213 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced7…b7b5backed No | 48c | 165.66$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.75 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 49c | 150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 26c | 150$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 47c | 143$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.21 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe8…1141backed No | 52c | 128.02$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.7 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Yes | 49c | 128$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.28 | 318 | 42.1%134 W · 184 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 48c | 120$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.55 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd32…f000backed No | 49c | 116.33$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 158 | 28.5%45 W · 113 L | -18.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked No | 45c | 92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 363 | 56.5%205 W · 158 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Yes | 50c | 84.05$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.03 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 37c | 83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 359 | 44.8%161 W · 198 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 35c | 76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 453 | 48.3%219 W · 234 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 52c | 68.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 555 | 45.8%254 W · 301 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 49c | 60.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 793 | 54.2%430 W · 363 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2568…ef92backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 108 | 63.9%69 W · 39 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312c…ceecbacked No | 48c | 59.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaca…f5d5backed No | 49c | 57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 174 | 43.1%75 W · 99 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…ac24backed No | 49c | 51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed No | 49c | 48.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 55c | 46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 50c | 44.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 47c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf91a…8c4cbacked No | 51c | 34.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed No | 48c | 32.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f1…5b7fbacked Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked No | 48c | 27.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 144 | 43.8%63 W · 81 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed No | 48c | 27.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 147 | 44.9%66 W · 81 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 55c | 23.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked No | 51c | 20.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 164 | 43.9%72 W · 92 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked No | 50c | 20.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed No | 50c | 20.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 393 | 57.5%226 W · 167 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb239…80b4backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…2dbabacked Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -7.5wins | -0.15per pick | 66cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…0111backed Yes | 80c | 12.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.55 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FK Žalgiris Vilnius win on 2026-07-30?this page
- Will FK Žalgiris Vilnius vs. SK Dinamo Tbilisi end in a draw?No won
- Will SK Dinamo Tbilisi win on 2026-07-30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.