Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 9°C on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x485efa6ad76b1ab401b679edd5f2f9fed611c5a8787eeef5188339a1862cdba7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,593
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,950
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,593 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a0b…617ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,160$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 32c | 326.27$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 53c | 206.02$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.9 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 31c | 181.92$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.86 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 18c | 167.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 42c | 90$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.07 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…a9b9backed Yes | 22c | 85.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 45c | 84.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.22 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1796…c490backed No | 76c | 76.56$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 48 | 70.8%34 W · 14 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes | 22c | 75.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 42c | 69.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2d78…e5c9backed Yes | 78c | 64.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 105 | 24.8%26 W · 79 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 22c | 63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.14 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9217…076abacked No | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 22c | 57.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.79 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f37…1952backed No | 32c | 55.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.87 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 53.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 40c | 44.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 61c | 43.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 39.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…fc3fbacked No | 33c | 37.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bea…bab9backed No | 61c | 30.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be0…53d0backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…cc7dbacked No | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2109…58b3backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf279…202cbacked No | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7782…f35fbacked No | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 41c | 28.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 64c | 28.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 58c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…0442backed Yes | 61c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b0…a453backed No | 56c | 19.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 9°C on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on May 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C or higher on May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.