Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf84fb2787a1fae8b8bde3b5677df63b2157eea754475f998369331f69f56f2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,985
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,822
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,985 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 58c | 236$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.58 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 17c | 155$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.3 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 33c | 129.53$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.11 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0b…617ebacked Yes | 77c | 117.34$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf422…5753backed Yes | 28c | 106.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 13c | 97.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…a9b9backed Yes | 38c | 96.38$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.17 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 94.36$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.78 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 33c | 87.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 19c | 72.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 18c | 70.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 69c | 67.1$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.09 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 67c | 59.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 75c | 58.88$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 54.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes | 35c | 53.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 32c | 53.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 60c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 46c | 41.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d14…abaebacked Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 39.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 28c | 37.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d78…e5c9backed Yes | 34c | 37.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 105 | 24.8%26 W · 79 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 78c | 35.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc00c…ab4abacked No | 72c | 34.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 54 | 79.6%43 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa52d…a95abacked No | 55c | 34.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9217…076abacked No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 62c | 29.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 57c | 21.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked No | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94c0…a805backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 66c | 19.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 65c | 16.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…922ebacked Yes | 72c | 15.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C or higher on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 9°C on May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.