Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: Na`Vi (-1.5) vs PlayTime (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x487b0936cf185def92ea7bae50c17a9833f7fab14d03be7101548589df3b6490
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PlayTimeof Natus Vincere, PlayTime
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,164
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,592
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,164 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6111…4742backed Natus Vincere | 42c | 3,980$1,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,666.4 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked PlayTime | 58c | 3,451$2,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,447.03 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed PlayTime | 60c | 446$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.6 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked PlayTime | 64c | 358.76$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.22 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed PlayTime | 62c | 311.04$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.59 | 198 | 57.1%113 W · 85 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe59…0d2ebacked Natus Vincere | 36c | 279.98$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.79 | 162 | 43.2%70 W · 92 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56f8…8c55backed Natus Vincere | 37c | 271.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.43 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e3…d5f4backed Natus Vincere | 40c | 247.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 166 | 41.6%69 W · 97 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8da…a6e6backed PlayTime | 64c | 155.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.98 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x09ce…af35backed PlayTime | 73c | 135$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.06 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked PlayTime | 59c | 116.9$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.93 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…7f73backed PlayTime | 63c | 110$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 261 | 54.8%143 W · 118 L | +11.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed Natus Vincere | 36c | 102.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 412 | 48.8%201 W · 211 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2b…d422backed PlayTime | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 148 | 45.9%68 W · 80 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Natus Vincere | 30c | 75.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 173 | 38.7%67 W · 106 L | -9.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…bc65backed Natus Vincere | 37c | 72.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed PlayTime | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 294 | 32.3%95 W · 199 L | -19.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1568…c958backed Natus Vincere | 36c | 54.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c36…e462backed Natus Vincere | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked PlayTime | 46c | 49.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Natus Vincere | 54c | 48.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Natus Vincere | 40c | 41.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed PlayTime | 60c | 37.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…42f2backed Natus Vincere | 38c | 34.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed PlayTime | 63c | 29.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c27…21a9backed PlayTime | 64c | 23.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 54 | 70.4%38 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed PlayTime | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +41%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: Na`Vi (-1.5) vs PlayTime (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague PlayoffsPlayTime won
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs PlayTime - Game 1 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs PlayTime - Game 2 WinnerPlayTime won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.