Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48848db03fb018b4c693e4ff74aca7c54fe0220ca14d64d2d8f8c4992c67ae9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,367
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,250
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,367 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb64a…f2fabacked Yes | 1c | 4,927$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.04 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 7c | 1,090$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.86 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadaa…875abacked Yes | 7c | 1,034$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.49 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c55…ddfbbacked Yes | 41c | 950.61$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.39 | 117 | 24.8%29 W · 88 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 3c | 646.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 6c | 629.49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 72c | 609.37$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.07 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 5c | 447$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 18c | 444.97$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.56 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f0…5cd7backed Yes | 3c | 422$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 62 | 8.1%5 W · 57 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 23c | 345.62$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.2 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 8c | 332$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 18c | 315.79$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.33 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2fb6backed Yes | 3c | 311.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 15c | 306.69$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab36…38dabacked No | 72c | 293.36$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.48 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 233.11$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01eb…b04abacked Yes | 28c | 220$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 29c | 211.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.34 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed No | 70c | 202.24$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.04 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 38c | 165$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.98 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 18c | 161$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 53c | 146.75$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.48 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 37c | 133.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 75c | 131.29$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.07 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 20c | 115.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 29c | 105.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 97.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 20c | 92.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 68c | 77.72$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…3b47backed Yes | 29c | 68.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb460…6424backed Yes | 23c | 52.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c95…8188backed Yes | 22c | 52.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +359.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 63c | 51.62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73ae…3b52backed Yes | 47c | 48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 47c | 42.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…41b8backed Yes | 36c | 41.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 40.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 72c | 39.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 72c | 34.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66ee…9ab7backed No | 76c | 26.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 77c | 25.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52e…8f98backed No | 75c | 23.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -7.2wins | -0.28per pick | 66cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 67c | 22.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 75c | 18.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…99b9backed No | 64c | 18.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 77c | 14.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 96°F or higher on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.