Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37749ece9b0e9eaff0c830e6a3024c4f67ccb42c76172c611523582df7393746
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,410
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,511
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,410 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 14c | 876.76$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.83 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked No | 80c | 654.46$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.35 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 29c | 428.29$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.42 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 8c | 364.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 7c | 342.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 32c | 300$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.24 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…b752backed Yes | 14c | 292.52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.87 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 8c | 283.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 74c | 239.01$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.31 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab36…38dabacked Yes | 12c | 232.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 229.49$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.46 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 12c | 222.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 14c | 199.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 27c | 186.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 19c | 159.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 26c | 153$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 72c | 148.66$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.29 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 74c | 134.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed No | 75c | 117.74$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 76c | 115.89$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.81 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 26c | 110$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 76c | 102.52$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 95.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 16c | 87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 71c | 85.51$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 22c | 80.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 73c | 77.19$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 19c | 72.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 28c | 70.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 25c | 69.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9405…9d5dbacked Yes | 28c | 66.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 73c | 66.3$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 64.91$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 22c | 64.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x899f…c012backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 72c | 59.32$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 24c | 56.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 72c | 42.67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 79c | 37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 68c | 36.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 33c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2a…967bbacked Yes | 28c | 35.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 72c | 33.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 75c | 27.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c000backed No | 74c | 27.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…99b9backed No | 72c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 69c | 18.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6390…9bf0backed No | 76c | 18.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 66c | 17.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 76c | 17.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 72c | 16.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 76c | 15.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd464…f291backed No | 72c | 13.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 96°F or higher on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.