Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7b4ced4222cd927bda950d50c46391aaa48b87db10192eca312194320669c7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,517
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,906
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,517 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 46c | 798.32$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.13 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 51c | 699.2$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.21 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 40c | 623.65$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.24 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 38c | 583.67$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.73 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 558.8$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.28 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 43c | 459.7$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.82 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab36…38dabacked No | 63c | 417.86$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.93 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x143c…487ebacked Yes | 19c | 366.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.99 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 36c | 309.96$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.58 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 72c | 277.5$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.04 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 24c | 275.43$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.66 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7f…2e64backed No | 48c | 186.54$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.03 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 80c | 185$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…65d5backed Yes | 11c | 181.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.81 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 53c | 176.5$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.03 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 34c | 170.61$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.03 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 38c | 167.13$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.25 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 19c | 154.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5f…6c06backed Yes | 68c | 151.7$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.84 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 23c | 150$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…abbabacked Yes | 36c | 124.52$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.52 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 14c | 120$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.69 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 42c | 119.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.64 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 20c | 108.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.61 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 19c | 106.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf760…09e0backed Yes | 70c | 105.53$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 105$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.75 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 17c | 104.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.22 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…99b9backed No | 66c | 103.5$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.15 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa370…b980backed Yes | 16c | 101.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.85 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 16c | 100.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.12 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.19 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.75 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed Yes | 63c | 99.42$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.02 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 25c | 97.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.9 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 33c | 97.02$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.36 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 41c | 96.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 73c | 95.95$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.3 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 51c | 95.53$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 51c | 90.74$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 79c | 86.91$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 29c | 84.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.64 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 15c | 82.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.33 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes | 16c | 80.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.85 | 117 | 29.9%35 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 28c | 76.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb144…2c8cbacked Yes | 13c | 75.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.92 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 73.83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 39c | 73.68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.76 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 71.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.64 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 17c | 69.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.64 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 48c | 69.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed Yes | 20c | 68.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.88 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 80c | 67.72$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 79c | 67.54$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.09 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 19c | 66.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 25c | 66.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.76 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 18c | 63.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.93 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadaa…875abacked Yes | 35c | 56.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.11 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 56.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2b…bf2abacked Yes | 25c | 56.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.46 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed Yes | 51c | 52.73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 49c | 51.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73ae…3b52backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 65c | 46.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 65c | 45.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed Yes | 37c | 45.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 49c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 39c | 43.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 42c | 37.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 43c | 36.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 39c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 62c | 33.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 79c | 33.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 42c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 76c | 32.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed No | 75c | 32.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 125 | 64.8%81 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56e7…a35dbacked Yes | 49c | 32.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 34c | 31.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x608a…966bbacked No | 35c | 31.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed Yes | 54c | 30.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 68c | 29.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 63c | 29.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed No | 62c | 29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 44c | 28.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd540…f3dbbacked Yes | 53c | 26.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 63c | 25.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…8f33backed No | 80c | 23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 121 | 74.4%90 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 75c | 21.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd52e…8f98backed No | 69c | 19.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -7.2wins | -0.28per pick | 66cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…922ebacked Yes | 57c | 19.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 96°F or higher on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.