TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,517
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,906

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,517 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes46c798.32$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.1365749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes51c699.2$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.214,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed Yes40c623.65$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.2492028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes38c583.67$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.7312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes17c558.8$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.2817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes43c459.7$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.8270741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab36…38dabacked No63c417.86$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.933745.9%17 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x143c…487ebacked Yes19c366.99$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.995831%18 W · 40 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-22.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No36c309.96$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.5888628.9%256 W · 630 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No72c277.5$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.0445162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes24c275.43$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.662,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f7f…2e64backed No48c186.54$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.032962.1%18 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ba7…3d88backed No80c185$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14847866.5%318 W · 160 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7cf…65d5backed Yes11c181.81$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.817817.9%14 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No53c176.5$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.031,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No34c170.61$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.0376755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes38c167.13$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.255,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No19c154.86$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.411,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd5f…6c06backed Yes68c151.7$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.841822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-50.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No23c150$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.135,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f26…abbabacked Yes36c124.52$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.5211331.9%36 W · 77 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes14c120$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.691,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x103e…78b5backed Yes42c119.64$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.6416134.2%55 W · 106 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b72…a958backed Yes20c108.51$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.6168645.8%314 W · 372 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No19c106.01$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.221,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf760…09e0backed Yes70c105.53$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.28850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No75c105$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.752,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked Yes17c104.46$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.221,21129.8%361 W · 850 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd10…99b9backed No66c103.5$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.155752.6%30 W · 27 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa370…b980backed Yes16c101.93$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.851010%1 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-36.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes16c100.67$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.1268335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes21c100$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.1934934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No79c100$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.7598571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa84…e985backed Yes13c100$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8740739.3%160 W · 247 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c5f…a235backed Yes63c99.42$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.0211148.6%54 W · 57 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes25c97.36$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.91,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes33c97.02$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.3626344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No41c96.4$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.715,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No73c95.95$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.31,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No51c95.53$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.643,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc556…9720backed Yes51c90.74$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.525549%125 W · 130 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No79c86.91$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.499963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes29c84.28$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.6444536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed Yes15c82.93$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.332,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes16c80.75$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.8511729.9%35 W · 82 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No28c76.55$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.31,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb144…2c8cbacked Yes13c75.04$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.921717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No60c73.83$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x3271…cd33backed Yes39c73.68$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.7613531.1%42 W · 93 L+8.7wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes20c71.09$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.649,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb85…f401backed Yes17c69.44$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.6431124.1%75 W · 236 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No48c69.35$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.174,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3e28…4983backed Yes20c68.88$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.8833654.2%182 W · 154 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8454…3587backed No80c67.72$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5427376.6%209 W · 64 L+0.5wins0.00per pick76cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No79c67.54$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.098,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3942…39d7backed No19c66.52$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6429717.2%51 W · 246 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaafc…ec67backed Yes25c66.04$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.7644757.3%256 W · 191 L+53.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+24%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked Yes18c63.33$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.9382742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No75c60$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4597570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadaa…875abacked Yes35c56.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.1113134.4%45 W · 86 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No64c56.57$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.444,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a2b…bf2abacked Yes25c56.51$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.466264.5%40 W · 22 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No38c54$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.691,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe54c…2c69backed Yes51c52.73$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.6225560.8%155 W · 100 L+16.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes49c51.27$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.392,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x73ae…3b52backed Yes38c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.895738.6%22 W · 35 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4374…3d05backed No65c46.44$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3034151.3%175 W · 166 L-26.9wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-16.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes65c45.57$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.771,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c70…edf3backed Yes37c45.45$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.4512539.2%49 W · 76 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No49c44$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.743,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No39c43.29$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.788650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No45c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.81,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes42c37.18$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.632,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd22…2013backed Yes43c36.07$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6731454.1%170 W · 144 L+31.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+21.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes39c35$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.232,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No62c33.75$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.861,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No79c33.41$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.391,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No42c33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.821,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2671…a5fabacked No76c32.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8319059.5%113 W · 77 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9b7…8030backed No75c32.5$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4212564.8%81 W · 44 L+0.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56e7…a35dbacked Yes49c32.17$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.522458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3319…977abacked Yes34c31.57$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.7126426.9%71 W · 193 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x608a…966bbacked No35c31.36$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.084761.7%29 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a2c…3d80backed Yes54c30.54$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0518931.7%60 W · 129 L-40.3wins-0.21per pick53cpaid-47.9%equal weight29-0.19 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No68c29.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.15,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No63c29.03$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.291,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe3b…ae48backed No62c29$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0325058.4%146 W · 104 L+22.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No44c28.81$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.722,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd540…f3dbbacked Yes53c26.56$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.568134.6%28 W · 53 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-23.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes63c25.09$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3299961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.252,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad0d…8f33backed No80c23$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.412174.4%90 W · 31 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No76c22$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.724,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes80c22$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.4911446.5%53 W · 61 L-6.3wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-21.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No75c21.79$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3468867.2%462 W · 226 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x879e…e339backed No62c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3117555.4%97 W · 78 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32b9…9a9cbacked No67c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.464960.2%391 W · 258 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd52e…8f98backed No69c19.48$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.532638.5%10 W · 16 L-7.2wins-0.28per pick66cpaid-41.4%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x1502…922ebacked Yes57c19.2$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.24269%29 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.