Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92ce7371b64fbfd16b7900888c7f4936fa4ffe339e6f5f5fd7957a3edbf941f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,206
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,323
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,206 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 38c | 705.24$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.16 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed Yes | 52c | 681.5$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.44 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 52c | 517.94$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.1 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 68c | 432.45$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.06 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 23c | 357$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.3 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb64a…f2fabacked Yes | 41c | 268.58$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 53c | 260.08$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.26 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 42c | 253.78$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.9 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7f…2e64backed No | 76c | 245.24$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.12 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 43c | 245.14$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 75c | 238.9$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 55c | 218.32$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.64 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 43c | 206.52$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.42 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.37 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 77c | 195.86$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.88 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 74c | 188.01$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.24 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 50c | 179.95$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 40c | 163.88$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.19 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 41c | 148.7$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.96 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed Yes | 21c | 146.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 35c | 135.29$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 14c | 134.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 46c | 127.9$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.83 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed Yes | 41c | 127.89$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Yes | 58c | 118.21$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed Yes | 65c | 112.71$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 44c | 110.94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 47c | 108$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf760…09e0backed Yes | 28c | 105.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 52c | 103.16$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.33 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 54c | 102.52$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.57 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 36c | 101.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2840…ae07backed No | 79c | 100.74$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 57c | 99.92$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.86 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 12c | 99.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 72c | 97.67$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 96.4$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2a…967bbacked Yes | 21c | 95.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df3…c0d0backed Yes | 53c | 94.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 41c | 81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 54c | 75.71$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 41c | 75.51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 68c | 72.57$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.11 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 29c | 71.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25a…31c4backed No | 70c | 69.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 45c | 69$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.95 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…abbabacked Yes | 31c | 63.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…be1dbacked Yes | 48c | 62.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 82 | 18.3%15 W · 67 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 20c | 61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x237b…9f36backed No | 55c | 60.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2b…bf2abacked Yes | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x143c…487ebacked Yes | 55c | 54.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 46c | 54.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x222a…d5afbacked Yes | 46c | 53.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf713…fdebbacked Yes | 53c | 53.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 46c | 51.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 64c | 50.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 47c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed No | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 56c | 49.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 45c | 49.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 49.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x291d…8e36backed Yes | 41c | 48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 23cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 69c | 46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 29c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 63c | 44.03$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 46c | 43.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x841c…f9b8backed No | 50c | 40.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 41cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 46c | 39.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 46c | 39.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 44c | 38.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6414…8590backed Yes | 52c | 37.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 49c | 36.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 39c | 36.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 68c | 35.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 50c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 59c | 34.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 73c | 33.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 51c | 33.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 48c | 33.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…31b5backed No | 32c | 32.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 95 | 36.8%35 W · 60 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe256…0408backed Yes | 59c | 32.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 46c | 32.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 59c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 53c | 31.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 30.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x548a…e37abacked Yes | 40c | 30.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…2e9fbacked Yes | 37c | 30.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 96°F or higher on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.