TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,206
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,323

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,206 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes38c705.24$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.164,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c5f…a235backed Yes52c681.5$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.4411148.6%54 W · 57 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No52c517.94$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.18,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed No68c432.45$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.0692028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes23c357$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.318337.7%69 W · 114 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb64a…f2fabacked Yes41c268.58$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101030%3 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-40.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No53c260.08$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.261,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes42c253.78$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f7f…2e64backed No76c245.24$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.122962.1%18 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes43c245.14$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.2612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No75c238.9$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.9961760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes55c218.32$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.6456543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No43c206.52$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.424,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23d8…f6b9backed No70c200$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6025175.7%190 W · 61 L+24.7wins+0.10per pick66cpaid+14%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc62d…5577backed Yes57c200$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.3725038%95 W · 155 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No77c195.86$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.881,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No74c188.01$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.2467158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes50c179.95$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes40c163.88$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.195,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes41c148.7$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.9610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d33…6be3backed Yes21c146.21$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.414236.6%52 W · 90 L-0.6wins0.00per pick37cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes35c135.29$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.441,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes14c134.35$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.61,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes46c127.9$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.831,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4374…3d05backed Yes41c127.89$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5334151.3%175 W · 166 L-26.9wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-16.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbb42…6e09backed Yes58c118.21$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685151%26 W · 25 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe54c…2c69backed Yes65c112.71$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7325560.8%155 W · 100 L+16.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes44c110.94$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6826344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes47c108$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.72,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf760…09e0backed Yes28c105.42$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.72850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No52c103.16$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.331,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No54c102.52$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.571,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes36c101.7$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.261,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2840…ae07backed No79c100.74$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.143773%27 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick67cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.1389661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes57c99.92$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8668335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes12c99.28$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.433,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No72c97.67$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.7776755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No67c96.4$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.195,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e2a…967bbacked Yes21c95.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.123327.3%9 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3df3…c0d0backed Yes53c94.3$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505056%28 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes41c81$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3889544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8dd…ec86backed No54c75.71$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.1919057.9%110 W · 80 L-9.5wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No41c75.51$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.349,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes68c72.57$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.1170741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes29c71.06$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.940525.2%102 W · 303 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe25a…31c4backed No70c69.99$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.74757.4%27 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No45c69$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.9563757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f26…abbabacked Yes31c63.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011331.9%36 W · 77 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ad0…be1dbacked Yes48c62.36$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308218.3%15 W · 67 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid+12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed Yes20c61$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.21,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x237b…9f36backed No55c60.31$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.913262.5%20 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a2b…bf2abacked Yes51c60$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.66264.5%40 W · 22 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c59.98$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5380050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x143c…487ebacked Yes55c54.79$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305831%18 W · 40 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-22.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes46c54.04$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8545236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No38c54$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.311,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x222a…d5afbacked Yes46c53.96$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf713…fdebbacked Yes53c53.63$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.391233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-24.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes46c51.72$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8924434.4%84 W · 160 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No64c50.93$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.198160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes51c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6234934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4125…868cbacked Yes55c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.58240.2%33 W · 49 L-7.1wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes47c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.311,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked No52c49.99$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.9944646.2%206 W · 240 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x103e…78b5backed No70c49.99$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9916134.2%55 W · 106 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes56c49.98$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.993,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No45c49.92$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.482,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes37c49.02$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.053,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x291d…8e36backed Yes41c48$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.46205%1 W · 19 L-3.5wins-0.18per pick23cpaid-78.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No69c46$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.352,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8db4…9c07backed Yes29c45$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.259239.1%36 W · 56 L-6.7wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-38.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No63c44.03$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2957264.5%369 W · 203 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No46c43.7$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.712,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x841c…f9b8backed No50c40.23$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.23771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.30per pick41cpaid+31.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x73e7…8b59backed Yes69c40$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7343441.5%180 W · 254 L+29.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes46c39.6$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1856434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked Yes38c39.47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,21129.8%361 W · 850 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes46c39.06$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.834,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes44c38.11$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.952,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No57c38$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.265,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6414…8590backed Yes52c37.08$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.28250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes49c36.73$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1832352.9%171 W · 152 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes39c36.73$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.432,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe3b…ae48backed No55c36.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3625058.4%146 W · 104 L+22.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No68c35.27$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xba63…36dcbacked Yes50c35$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4540237.1%149 W · 253 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No59c34.34$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.141,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No73c33.62$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.082,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked Yes51c33.52$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9382742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No48c33.4$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.371,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ce3…31b5backed No32c32.97$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.339536.8%35 W · 60 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe256…0408backed Yes59c32.9$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.263641.7%15 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No46c32.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.41,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x11a4…f434backed No59c32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.147569.5%330 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff06…c7d5backed No53c31.83$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8211258.9%66 W · 46 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No63c30.98$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.464,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x548a…e37abacked Yes40c30.66$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.376845.6%31 W · 37 L-7.7wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-21.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfc7b…2e9fbacked Yes37c30.54$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.152744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.