NHL · resolved market
Stanley Cup: Game 7
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x488680a70813a34f5252a717a514e168bfd9f1f41bce488efbc9d4e476b7eff2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Panthersof Panthers, Oilers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,021
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,237
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,021 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96c4…bfdebacked Oilers | 2c | 10,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Panthers | 69c | 9,884$6,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,099.05 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Oilers | 11c | 4,598$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.76 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…25d0backed Oilers | 51c | 4,550$2,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,320.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…d337backed Panthers | 49c | 3,250$1,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,657.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Oilers | 50c | 3,188$1,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,593.93 | 397 | 52.1%207 W · 190 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Panthers | 52c | 2,746$1,415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,331.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed Oilers | 28c | 1,978$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x853e…82b4backed Oilers | 39c | 1,596$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed Panthers | 62c | 1,415$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.58 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Oilers | 23c | 1,332$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -71%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe940…cc2bbacked Oilers | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf95e…a8b7backed Oilers | 53c | 585.66$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e38…5d7fbacked Panthers | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8f…76b3backed Oilers | 53c | 509.43$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec5d…8f70backed Oilers | 11c | 505.45$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Oilers | 37c | 441.51$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.44 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Panthers | 31c | 387.89$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.37 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c9…b9e2backed Oilers | 53c | 310.53$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Panthers | 56c | 222$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.68 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Panthers | 67c | 194.29$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.12 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x091e…3432backed Oilers | 53c | 137$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a1…8d1cbacked Panthers | 76c | 114.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c00…6361backed Panthers | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…abb8backed Oilers | 25c | 69.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b4…909ebacked Oilers | 52c | 66.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Oilers | 44c | 57.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 218 | 50.9%111 W · 107 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc46…f143backed Panthers | 48c | 48.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x173c…5db5backed Panthers | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Panthers | 48c | 38.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe34c…12cdbacked Panthers | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa1…617fbacked Panthers | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x498d…d7bebacked Panthers | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd582…34dbbacked Panthers | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf24b…a4fcbacked Panthers | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.